Missouri's 4th congressional district maintains a pronounced Republican advantage, anchored by an R+21 partisan voting index and consistent GOP performance in prior elections. Incumbent Representative Mark Alford, who secured the seat in 2022, draws on established local recognition from his prior media career while navigating a Republican primary against challengers ahead of the August 4 contest. Democratic candidates such as Jeanette Cass compete in their own primary but contend with limited statewide visibility and the district's underlying partisan composition. Market pricing at 93.5 percent for a Republican outcome aligns with these structural factors, though scenarios including a national Democratic surge, primary upsets, or late developments in candidate positioning could still alter the trajectory before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$30,403 交易量
$30,403 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
94%
民主党
7%
$30,403 交易量
$30,403 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$16,483 交易量
94%
民主党
$13,920 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 4th congressional district maintains a pronounced Republican advantage, anchored by an R+21 partisan voting index and consistent GOP performance in prior elections. Incumbent Representative Mark Alford, who secured the seat in 2022, draws on established local recognition from his prior media career while navigating a Republican primary against challengers ahead of the August 4 contest. Democratic candidates such as Jeanette Cass compete in their own primary but contend with limited statewide visibility and the district's underlying partisan composition. Market pricing at 93.5 percent for a Republican outcome aligns with these structural factors, though scenarios including a national Democratic surge, primary upsets, or late developments in candidate positioning could still alter the trajectory before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$30,403结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 4th congressional district maintains a pronounced Republican advantage, anchored by an R+21 partisan voting index and consistent GOP performance in prior elections. Incumbent Representative Mark Alford, who secured the seat in 2022, draws on established local recognition from his prior media career while navigating a Republican primary against challengers ahead of the August 4 contest. Democratic candidates such as Jeanette Cass compete in their own primary but contend with limited statewide visibility and the district's underlying partisan composition. Market pricing at 93.5 percent for a Republican outcome aligns with these structural factors, though scenarios including a national Democratic surge, primary upsets, or late developments in candidate positioning could still alter the trajectory before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$30,403结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri's 4th congressional district maintains a pronounced Republican advantage, anchored by an R+21 partisan voting index and consistent GOP performance in prior elections. Incumbent Representative Mark Alford, who secured the seat in 2022, draws on established local recognition from his prior media career while navigating a Republican primary against challengers ahead of the August 4 contest. Democratic candidates such as Jeanette Cass compete in their own primary but contend with limited statewide visibility and the district's underlying partisan composition. Market pricing at 93.5 percent for a Republican outcome aligns with these structural factors, though scenarios including a national Democratic surge, primary upsets, or late developments in candidate positioning could still alter the trajectory before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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