Montana's solidly Republican electorate and the late withdrawal of incumbent Senator Steve Daines have positioned the GOP nominee, former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme, as the clear frontrunner in the 2026 Senate race. Daines's March 2026 endorsement of Alme, coupled with President Trump's backing, consolidated Republican support ahead of the June primary and the November general election. Independent candidate Seth Bodnar, the former University of Montana president with ties to former Democratic Senator Jon Tester, draws notable backing that fragments opposition votes yet leaves him well behind in recent polling. Democratic contenders including Reilly Neill remain hampered by the state's partisan leanings and lack of recent statewide success, resulting in trader consensus heavily favoring a Republican victory while assigning the independent a meaningful but secondary probability.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于共和党 78%
无党派人士 18.4%
民主党 2.2%
$72,988 交易量
$72,988 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
78%
无党派人士
18%
民主党
2%
共和党 78%
无党派人士 18.4%
民主党 2.2%
$72,988 交易量
$72,988 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$37,499 交易量
78%
无党派人士
$1,575 交易量
18%
民主党
$33,914 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Montana's solidly Republican electorate and the late withdrawal of incumbent Senator Steve Daines have positioned the GOP nominee, former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme, as the clear frontrunner in the 2026 Senate race. Daines's March 2026 endorsement of Alme, coupled with President Trump's backing, consolidated Republican support ahead of the June primary and the November general election. Independent candidate Seth Bodnar, the former University of Montana president with ties to former Democratic Senator Jon Tester, draws notable backing that fragments opposition votes yet leaves him well behind in recent polling. Democratic contenders including Reilly Neill remain hampered by the state's partisan leanings and lack of recent statewide success, resulting in trader consensus heavily favoring a Republican victory while assigning the independent a meaningful but secondary probability.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
交易量
$72,988结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Montana's solidly Republican electorate and the late withdrawal of incumbent Senator Steve Daines have positioned the GOP nominee, former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme, as the clear frontrunner in the 2026 Senate race. Daines's March 2026 endorsement of Alme, coupled with President Trump's backing, consolidated Republican support ahead of the June primary and the November general election. Independent candidate Seth Bodnar, the former University of Montana president with ties to former Democratic Senator Jon Tester, draws notable backing that fragments opposition votes yet leaves him well behind in recent polling. Democratic contenders including Reilly Neill remain hampered by the state's partisan leanings and lack of recent statewide success, resulting in trader consensus heavily favoring a Republican victory while assigning the independent a meaningful but secondary probability.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Montana U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$72,988结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Montana's solidly Republican electorate and the late withdrawal of incumbent Senator Steve Daines have positioned the GOP nominee, former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme, as the clear frontrunner in the 2026 Senate race. Daines's March 2026 endorsement of Alme, coupled with President Trump's backing, consolidated Republican support ahead of the June primary and the November general election. Independent candidate Seth Bodnar, the former University of Montana president with ties to former Democratic Senator Jon Tester, draws notable backing that fragments opposition votes yet leaves him well behind in recent polling. Democratic contenders including Reilly Neill remain hampered by the state's partisan leanings and lack of recent statewide success, resulting in trader consensus heavily favoring a Republican victory while assigning the independent a meaningful but secondary probability.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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