Mette Frederiksen holds the strongest position to become Denmark’s next prime minister because her Social Democrats secured the largest share of seats in the March 2026 parliamentary election, even though the red bloc fell short of a majority. Recent coalition negotiations she led collapsed after seven weeks, prompting King Frederik X on May 9 to assign Venstre leader Troels Lund Poulsen the task of forming a center-right government excluding the Social Democrats and Moderates. Lars Løkke Rasmussen’s Moderates retain kingmaker influence in the fragmented Folketing, while smaller parties on both sides remain marginal. Traders’ consensus reflects the incumbent’s institutional advantages and ongoing talks under a two-week deadline, with any breakthrough likely to hinge on cross-bloc compromises before parliament reconvenes.