Trader consensus assigns Abiy Ahmed a commanding implied probability of remaining Ethiopia’s prime minister, reflecting his entrenched position as leader of the Prosperity Party and control over parliamentary majorities. Recent political developments, including sustained party discipline and the absence of viable challengers within ruling structures, have reinforced this outlook. Factors such as ongoing regional security arrangements and institutional continuity further limit openings for alternative candidates. Still, the outcome could shift if internal party fractures emerge, health concerns arise, or unforeseen coalition realignments occur ahead of the next parliamentary selection process.