Incumbent Democrat Herbert Conaway's commanding position as the decisive favorite per Cook Political Report underpins trader consensus heavily favoring the Democratic Party in NJ-03, where he seeks a full term after winning the 2024 special election following Andy Kim's Senate departure. The district's suburban mix across Burlington, Mercer, and Monmouth counties aligns with Conaway's physician-lawyer background and cross-party appeal, while a crowded Republican primary—including challenger Jason Cullen—lacks a clear frontrunner ahead of the June 2 contest. Absent polls or recent scandals, high Democratic implied probabilities reflect incumbency advantages and historical base rates for House reelection, though a strong GOP nominee or midterm national wave could shift dynamics before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
90%
共和党
9%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$60 交易量
90%
共和党
$141 交易量
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Herbert Conaway's commanding position as the decisive favorite per Cook Political Report underpins trader consensus heavily favoring the Democratic Party in NJ-03, where he seeks a full term after winning the 2024 special election following Andy Kim's Senate departure. The district's suburban mix across Burlington, Mercer, and Monmouth counties aligns with Conaway's physician-lawyer background and cross-party appeal, while a crowded Republican primary—including challenger Jason Cullen—lacks a clear frontrunner ahead of the June 2 contest. Absent polls or recent scandals, high Democratic implied probabilities reflect incumbency advantages and historical base rates for House reelection, though a strong GOP nominee or midterm national wave could shift dynamics before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$201结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Herbert Conaway's commanding position as the decisive favorite per Cook Political Report underpins trader consensus heavily favoring the Democratic Party in NJ-03, where he seeks a full term after winning the 2024 special election following Andy Kim's Senate departure. The district's suburban mix across Burlington, Mercer, and Monmouth counties aligns with Conaway's physician-lawyer background and cross-party appeal, while a crowded Republican primary—including challenger Jason Cullen—lacks a clear frontrunner ahead of the June 2 contest. Absent polls or recent scandals, high Democratic implied probabilities reflect incumbency advantages and historical base rates for House reelection, though a strong GOP nominee or midterm national wave could shift dynamics before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$201结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Herbert Conaway's commanding position as the decisive favorite per Cook Political Report underpins trader consensus heavily favoring the Democratic Party in NJ-03, where he seeks a full term after winning the 2024 special election following Andy Kim's Senate departure. The district's suburban mix across Burlington, Mercer, and Monmouth counties aligns with Conaway's physician-lawyer background and cross-party appeal, while a crowded Republican primary—including challenger Jason Cullen—lacks a clear frontrunner ahead of the June 2 contest. Absent polls or recent scandals, high Democratic implied probabilities reflect incumbency advantages and historical base rates for House reelection, though a strong GOP nominee or midterm national wave could shift dynamics before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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