Texas’s structural Republican advantages in voter registration, turnout patterns, and fundraising continue to anchor trader consensus around an 84-85% implied probability for incumbent Greg Abbott in the November 2026 gubernatorial election. Abbott secured his party’s nomination with over 80% in the March primary and entered the cycle with more than $100 million on hand, while Democratic nominee Gina Hinojosa won her nine-candidate primary with 59%. Recent July and August surveys from Emerson College, Texas A&M Bush School, and others show Abbott’s lead narrowing to between one and six points amid rising Hinojosa name recognition, yet traders continue to price the state’s long-term partisan lean and Abbott’s campaign infrastructure more heavily than short-term polling movement ahead of the November 3 contest. Scheduled debates and shifts on energy or economic issues remain variables within the resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$55,884 交易量
$55,884 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
85%
民主党
16%
$55,884 交易量
$55,884 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$24,866 交易量
85%
民主党
$31,018 交易量
16%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Texas’s structural Republican advantages in voter registration, turnout patterns, and fundraising continue to anchor trader consensus around an 84-85% implied probability for incumbent Greg Abbott in the November 2026 gubernatorial election. Abbott secured his party’s nomination with over 80% in the March primary and entered the cycle with more than $100 million on hand, while Democratic nominee Gina Hinojosa won her nine-candidate primary with 59%. Recent July and August surveys from Emerson College, Texas A&M Bush School, and others show Abbott’s lead narrowing to between one and six points amid rising Hinojosa name recognition, yet traders continue to price the state’s long-term partisan lean and Abbott’s campaign infrastructure more heavily than short-term polling movement ahead of the November 3 contest. Scheduled debates and shifts on energy or economic issues remain variables within the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
交易量
$55,884结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Texas’s structural Republican advantages in voter registration, turnout patterns, and fundraising continue to anchor trader consensus around an 84-85% implied probability for incumbent Greg Abbott in the November 2026 gubernatorial election. Abbott secured his party’s nomination with over 80% in the March primary and entered the cycle with more than $100 million on hand, while Democratic nominee Gina Hinojosa won her nine-candidate primary with 59%. Recent July and August surveys from Emerson College, Texas A&M Bush School, and others show Abbott’s lead narrowing to between one and six points amid rising Hinojosa name recognition, yet traders continue to price the state’s long-term partisan lean and Abbott’s campaign infrastructure more heavily than short-term polling movement ahead of the November 3 contest. Scheduled debates and shifts on energy or economic issues remain variables within the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$55,884结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Texas’s structural Republican advantages in voter registration, turnout patterns, and fundraising continue to anchor trader consensus around an 84-85% implied probability for incumbent Greg Abbott in the November 2026 gubernatorial election. Abbott secured his party’s nomination with over 80% in the March primary and entered the cycle with more than $100 million on hand, while Democratic nominee Gina Hinojosa won her nine-candidate primary with 59%. Recent July and August surveys from Emerson College, Texas A&M Bush School, and others show Abbott’s lead narrowing to between one and six points amid rising Hinojosa name recognition, yet traders continue to price the state’s long-term partisan lean and Abbott’s campaign infrastructure more heavily than short-term polling movement ahead of the November 3 contest. Scheduled debates and shifts on energy or economic issues remain variables within the resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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