Greg Abbott holds an 84.6% implied probability in the 2026 Texas gubernatorial race due to the state's longstanding Republican advantages in voter registration, turnout patterns, and fundraising. The three-term incumbent secured his nomination with over 80% in the March primary and maintains a substantial campaign organization and financial edge over Democratic nominee Gina Hinojosa, who won her nine-candidate primary with 59%. Recent July and August polls, including Emerson College and Texas A&M Bush School surveys, show Abbott's lead narrowing to 1–4 points as Hinojosa's name identification rises. Traders continue to price in structural factors and historical precedent ahead of the November 3 contest, while noting potential variables such as scheduled debates and shifts in key issues like energy and the economy.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$56,083 交易量
$56,083 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
85%
民主党
16%
$56,083 交易量
$56,083 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$24,866 交易量
85%
民主党
$31,217 交易量
16%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Greg Abbott holds an 84.6% implied probability in the 2026 Texas gubernatorial race due to the state's longstanding Republican advantages in voter registration, turnout patterns, and fundraising. The three-term incumbent secured his nomination with over 80% in the March primary and maintains a substantial campaign organization and financial edge over Democratic nominee Gina Hinojosa, who won her nine-candidate primary with 59%. Recent July and August polls, including Emerson College and Texas A&M Bush School surveys, show Abbott's lead narrowing to 1–4 points as Hinojosa's name identification rises. Traders continue to price in structural factors and historical precedent ahead of the November 3 contest, while noting potential variables such as scheduled debates and shifts in key issues like energy and the economy.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
交易量
$56,083结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Greg Abbott holds an 84.6% implied probability in the 2026 Texas gubernatorial race due to the state's longstanding Republican advantages in voter registration, turnout patterns, and fundraising. The three-term incumbent secured his nomination with over 80% in the March primary and maintains a substantial campaign organization and financial edge over Democratic nominee Gina Hinojosa, who won her nine-candidate primary with 59%. Recent July and August polls, including Emerson College and Texas A&M Bush School surveys, show Abbott's lead narrowing to 1–4 points as Hinojosa's name identification rises. Traders continue to price in structural factors and historical precedent ahead of the November 3 contest, while noting potential variables such as scheduled debates and shifts in key issues like energy and the economy.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$56,083结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Greg Abbott holds an 84.6% implied probability in the 2026 Texas gubernatorial race due to the state's longstanding Republican advantages in voter registration, turnout patterns, and fundraising. The three-term incumbent secured his nomination with over 80% in the March primary and maintains a substantial campaign organization and financial edge over Democratic nominee Gina Hinojosa, who won her nine-candidate primary with 59%. Recent July and August polls, including Emerson College and Texas A&M Bush School surveys, show Abbott's lead narrowing to 1–4 points as Hinojosa's name identification rises. Traders continue to price in structural factors and historical precedent ahead of the November 3 contest, while noting potential variables such as scheduled debates and shifts in key issues like energy and the economy.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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