Incumbent Republican Greg Abbott holds a commanding position in the 2026 Texas gubernatorial race due to the state's longstanding Republican advantages in voter registration, turnout patterns, and fundraising. Recent July and August polls from Emerson College, Texas A&M Bush School, and others show Abbott leading Democrat Gina Hinojosa by 1 to 6 points, with several surveys placing the contest within or near the margin of error after Hinojosa secured her nomination. Traders assign Abbott an 84.5% implied probability, reflecting these structural factors and his campaign infrastructure ahead of the November 3 vote, while pricing Hinojosa's gains from increased name recognition as insufficient to overcome historical partisan trends. Scheduled debates and shifts on economic or energy issues could still influence late movement.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$56,083 交易量
$56,083 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
84%
民主党
16%
$56,083 交易量
$56,083 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$24,866 交易量
84%
民主党
$31,217 交易量
16%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Greg Abbott holds a commanding position in the 2026 Texas gubernatorial race due to the state's longstanding Republican advantages in voter registration, turnout patterns, and fundraising. Recent July and August polls from Emerson College, Texas A&M Bush School, and others show Abbott leading Democrat Gina Hinojosa by 1 to 6 points, with several surveys placing the contest within or near the margin of error after Hinojosa secured her nomination. Traders assign Abbott an 84.5% implied probability, reflecting these structural factors and his campaign infrastructure ahead of the November 3 vote, while pricing Hinojosa's gains from increased name recognition as insufficient to overcome historical partisan trends. Scheduled debates and shifts on economic or energy issues could still influence late movement.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
交易量
$56,083结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Greg Abbott holds a commanding position in the 2026 Texas gubernatorial race due to the state's longstanding Republican advantages in voter registration, turnout patterns, and fundraising. Recent July and August polls from Emerson College, Texas A&M Bush School, and others show Abbott leading Democrat Gina Hinojosa by 1 to 6 points, with several surveys placing the contest within or near the margin of error after Hinojosa secured her nomination. Traders assign Abbott an 84.5% implied probability, reflecting these structural factors and his campaign infrastructure ahead of the November 3 vote, while pricing Hinojosa's gains from increased name recognition as insufficient to overcome historical partisan trends. Scheduled debates and shifts on economic or energy issues could still influence late movement.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$56,083结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Greg Abbott holds a commanding position in the 2026 Texas gubernatorial race due to the state's longstanding Republican advantages in voter registration, turnout patterns, and fundraising. Recent July and August polls from Emerson College, Texas A&M Bush School, and others show Abbott leading Democrat Gina Hinojosa by 1 to 6 points, with several surveys placing the contest within or near the margin of error after Hinojosa secured her nomination. Traders assign Abbott an 84.5% implied probability, reflecting these structural factors and his campaign infrastructure ahead of the November 3 vote, while pricing Hinojosa's gains from increased name recognition as insufficient to overcome historical partisan trends. Scheduled debates and shifts on economic or energy issues could still influence late movement.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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