Trader consensus prices a 55% implied probability against Rep. Tony Gonzales facing criminal charges by June 30, reflecting the absence of any announced DOJ or FBI investigation following his April 14 resignation from Congress. The House Ethics Committee probe into allegations of sexual misconduct—including an admitted affair with a staffer who later died by suicide and prior harassment claims—concluded upon his departure, averting a planned expulsion vote under H.Res.1172. With no new evidence elevating the ethics violations to criminal offenses like obstruction, and over six weeks of silence from federal authorities since the scandal peaked in early April, traders view indictment as unlikely barring late-breaking developments or referrals.