Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 93.5% implied probability to win Virginia's 9th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's strong R+22 partisan lean and incumbent Rep. Morgan Griffith's unchallenged dominance since 2011, including easy 2024 reelection. Recent April 2026 voter approval of a mid-decade redistricting amendment—currently stalled by court order—has not altered VA-09's solidly Republican profile in southwest Virginia. Multiple Democratic primary challengers, like Joy Powers and Adam Murphy, face a fragmented field ahead of the August 4 primaries, with Griffith holding fundraising edges. While scandals, adverse redistricting rulings, or a national Democratic wave could shift odds, structural advantages make an upset unlikely.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$42,244 交易量
$42,244 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
94%
民主党
7%
$42,244 交易量
$42,244 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$33,025 交易量
94%
民主党
$9,219 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 93.5% implied probability to win Virginia's 9th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's strong R+22 partisan lean and incumbent Rep. Morgan Griffith's unchallenged dominance since 2011, including easy 2024 reelection. Recent April 2026 voter approval of a mid-decade redistricting amendment—currently stalled by court order—has not altered VA-09's solidly Republican profile in southwest Virginia. Multiple Democratic primary challengers, like Joy Powers and Adam Murphy, face a fragmented field ahead of the August 4 primaries, with Griffith holding fundraising edges. While scandals, adverse redistricting rulings, or a national Democratic wave could shift odds, structural advantages make an upset unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$42,244结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 93.5% implied probability to win Virginia's 9th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's strong R+22 partisan lean and incumbent Rep. Morgan Griffith's unchallenged dominance since 2011, including easy 2024 reelection. Recent April 2026 voter approval of a mid-decade redistricting amendment—currently stalled by court order—has not altered VA-09's solidly Republican profile in southwest Virginia. Multiple Democratic primary challengers, like Joy Powers and Adam Murphy, face a fragmented field ahead of the August 4 primaries, with Griffith holding fundraising edges. While scandals, adverse redistricting rulings, or a national Democratic wave could shift odds, structural advantages make an upset unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$42,244结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 93.5% implied probability to win Virginia's 9th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's strong R+22 partisan lean and incumbent Rep. Morgan Griffith's unchallenged dominance since 2011, including easy 2024 reelection. Recent April 2026 voter approval of a mid-decade redistricting amendment—currently stalled by court order—has not altered VA-09's solidly Republican profile in southwest Virginia. Multiple Democratic primary challengers, like Joy Powers and Adam Murphy, face a fragmented field ahead of the August 4 primaries, with Griffith holding fundraising edges. While scandals, adverse redistricting rulings, or a national Democratic wave could shift odds, structural advantages make an upset unlikely.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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