Recent polling has positioned center-left candidate Andrea Martella as the clear frontrunner in the Venice mayoral race, with surveys such as the early May Tecnè poll showing him ahead of center-right challenger Simone Venturini among decided voters and substantial undecided support potentially consolidating in his favor. This dynamic explains the current trader consensus reflected in the 84% implied probability for Martella, as the election approaches its first round on May 24-25, 2026, with a possible runoff on June 7-8. Venturini, backed by the coalition that held the mayoralty for more than a decade, trails amid efforts to appeal to key demographics including diaspora communities, while minor candidates such as Michele Boldrin register negligible support and limited impact on the outcome.