Alberta's October 19, 2026 referendum includes a preliminary question on whether to begin the constitutional process toward a binding independence vote, rather than deciding separation outright. Multiple 2026 polls, including Ipsos and Angus Reid surveys from May through August, show 19–33% support for advancing that process, with 61–72% favoring remaining a province of Canada. Premier Danielle Smith has positioned the ballot as an opportunity to strengthen Alberta's position within a united Canada. Declining or stable minority backing for separation, combined with the non-binding nature of the October vote and constitutional hurdles to any subsequent referendum, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 91.6% probability assigned to "No."
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
8% 概率
$256,215 交易量
$256,215 交易量
2026-12-30
是
8% 概率
$256,215 交易量
$256,215 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Alberta's October 19, 2026 referendum includes a preliminary question on whether to begin the constitutional process toward a binding independence vote, rather than deciding separation outright. Multiple 2026 polls, including Ipsos and Angus Reid surveys from May through August, show 19–33% support for advancing that process, with 61–72% favoring remaining a province of Canada. Premier Danielle Smith has positioned the ballot as an opportunity to strengthen Alberta's position within a united Canada. Declining or stable minority backing for separation, combined with the non-binding nature of the October vote and constitutional hurdles to any subsequent referendum, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 91.6% probability assigned to "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
交易量
$256,215结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Alberta's October 19, 2026 referendum includes a preliminary question on whether to begin the constitutional process toward a binding independence vote, rather than deciding separation outright. Multiple 2026 polls, including Ipsos and Angus Reid surveys from May through August, show 19–33% support for advancing that process, with 61–72% favoring remaining a province of Canada. Premier Danielle Smith has positioned the ballot as an opportunity to strengthen Alberta's position within a united Canada. Declining or stable minority backing for separation, combined with the non-binding nature of the October vote and constitutional hurdles to any subsequent referendum, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 91.6% probability assigned to "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$256,215结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 30, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Alberta's October 19, 2026 referendum includes a preliminary question on whether to begin the constitutional process toward a binding independence vote, rather than deciding separation outright. Multiple 2026 polls, including Ipsos and Angus Reid surveys from May through August, show 19–33% support for advancing that process, with 61–72% favoring remaining a province of Canada. Premier Danielle Smith has positioned the ballot as an opportunity to strengthen Alberta's position within a united Canada. Declining or stable minority backing for separation, combined with the non-binding nature of the October vote and constitutional hurdles to any subsequent referendum, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 91.6% probability assigned to "No."
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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