**The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has been exceptionally quiet, with only six named storms, zero hurricanes, and zero major hurricanes recorded as of late September.** Official forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University anticipated below-normal activity (roughly 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes) due to strengthening El Niño conditions that increase wind shear and suppress tropical cyclone formation and intensification across the basin. This aligns with the current absence of organized systems capable of reaching Category 5 intensity (sustained winds ≥157 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale) and making U.S. landfall before the season ends November 30. Category 5 landfalls on the continental U.S. are historically rare—only four have occurred in the modern record (1935 Labor Day, Camille 1969, Andrew 1992, Michael 2018)—reflecting the narrow window of atmospheric and oceanic conditions required. With peak activity (mid-August to mid-October) largely passed amid unfavorable steering patterns and shear, the market-implied 96.7% probability for “No” reflects trader consensus on these suppressed conditions. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an unusually late-season system undergoing rapid intensification in the Gulf or western Atlantic and tracking toward the U.S. coastline, though current model guidance and the calendar make this improbable. New National Hurricane Center updates or shifts in the El Niño pattern could provide the next data points for traders to reassess.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
3% 概率
$142,105 交易量
$142,105 交易量
2026-12-31
是
3% 概率
$142,105 交易量
$142,105 交易量
2026-12-31
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.**The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has been exceptionally quiet, with only six named storms, zero hurricanes, and zero major hurricanes recorded as of late September.** Official forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University anticipated below-normal activity (roughly 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes) due to strengthening El Niño conditions that increase wind shear and suppress tropical cyclone formation and intensification across the basin. This aligns with the current absence of organized systems capable of reaching Category 5 intensity (sustained winds ≥157 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale) and making U.S. landfall before the season ends November 30.
Category 5 landfalls on the continental U.S. are historically rare—only four have occurred in the modern record (1935 Labor Day, Camille 1969, Andrew 1992, Michael 2018)—reflecting the narrow window of atmospheric and oceanic conditions required. With peak activity (mid-August to mid-October) largely passed amid unfavorable steering patterns and shear, the market-implied 96.7% probability for “No” reflects trader consensus on these suppressed conditions.
Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an unusually late-season system undergoing rapid intensification in the Gulf or western Atlantic and tracking toward the U.S. coastline, though current model guidance and the calendar make this improbable. New National Hurricane Center updates or shifts in the El Niño pattern could provide the next data points for traders to reassess.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
市场开放时间： Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
交易量
$142,105结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETFor the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.**The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has been exceptionally quiet, with only six named storms, zero hurricanes, and zero major hurricanes recorded as of late September.** Official forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University anticipated below-normal activity (roughly 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes) due to strengthening El Niño conditions that increase wind shear and suppress tropical cyclone formation and intensification across the basin. This aligns with the current absence of organized systems capable of reaching Category 5 intensity (sustained winds ≥157 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale) and making U.S. landfall before the season ends November 30.
Category 5 landfalls on the continental U.S. are historically rare—only four have occurred in the modern record (1935 Labor Day, Camille 1969, Andrew 1992, Michael 2018)—reflecting the narrow window of atmospheric and oceanic conditions required. With peak activity (mid-August to mid-October) largely passed amid unfavorable steering patterns and shear, the market-implied 96.7% probability for “No” reflects trader consensus on these suppressed conditions.
Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an unusually late-season system undergoing rapid intensification in the Gulf or western Atlantic and tracking toward the U.S. coastline, though current model guidance and the calendar make this improbable. New National Hurricane Center updates or shifts in the El Niño pattern could provide the next data points for traders to reassess.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
交易量
$142,105结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET**The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has been exceptionally quiet, with only six named storms, zero hurricanes, and zero major hurricanes recorded as of late September.** Official forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University anticipated below-normal activity (roughly 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes) due to strengthening El Niño conditions that increase wind shear and suppress tropical cyclone formation and intensification across the basin. This aligns with the current absence of organized systems capable of reaching Category 5 intensity (sustained winds ≥157 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale) and making U.S. landfall before the season ends November 30. Category 5 landfalls on the continental U.S. are historically rare—only four have occurred in the modern record (1935 Labor Day, Camille 1969, Andrew 1992, Michael 2018)—reflecting the narrow window of atmospheric and oceanic conditions required. With peak activity (mid-August to mid-October) largely passed amid unfavorable steering patterns and shear, the market-implied 96.7% probability for “No” reflects trader consensus on these suppressed conditions. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include an unusually late-season system undergoing rapid intensification in the Gulf or western Atlantic and tracking toward the U.S. coastline, though current model guidance and the calendar make this improbable. New National Hurricane Center updates or shifts in the El Niño pattern could provide the next data points for traders to reassess.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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