Recent fiscal legislation, including the 2025 reconciliation measure extending tax provisions while expanding defense and border funding, has driven CBO baselines projecting a $1.9 trillion deficit for fiscal year 2026, with outlays continuing to exceed revenues amid rising net interest costs. This trajectory, reinforced by limited enacted spending reductions despite administration rescissions proposals and tariff revenue gains, underpins the near-certain trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Structural pressures from mandatory programs and debt service constrain reversal. Modest upside scenarios such as stronger-than-expected growth, further debt-ceiling concessions, or accelerated efficiency measures could narrow gaps by late 2026, though baseline trends make substantial deficit reduction before 2027 improbable.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
<1% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
<1% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Recent fiscal legislation, including the 2025 reconciliation measure extending tax provisions while expanding defense and border funding, has driven CBO baselines projecting a $1.9 trillion deficit for fiscal year 2026, with outlays continuing to exceed revenues amid rising net interest costs. This trajectory, reinforced by limited enacted spending reductions despite administration rescissions proposals and tariff revenue gains, underpins the near-certain trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Structural pressures from mandatory programs and debt service constrain reversal. Modest upside scenarios such as stronger-than-expected growth, further debt-ceiling concessions, or accelerated efficiency measures could narrow gaps by late 2026, though baseline trends make substantial deficit reduction before 2027 improbable.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ET
交易量
$2,472结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.Recent fiscal legislation, including the 2025 reconciliation measure extending tax provisions while expanding defense and border funding, has driven CBO baselines projecting a $1.9 trillion deficit for fiscal year 2026, with outlays continuing to exceed revenues amid rising net interest costs. This trajectory, reinforced by limited enacted spending reductions despite administration rescissions proposals and tariff revenue gains, underpins the near-certain trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Structural pressures from mandatory programs and debt service constrain reversal. Modest upside scenarios such as stronger-than-expected growth, further debt-ceiling concessions, or accelerated efficiency measures could narrow gaps by late 2026, though baseline trends make substantial deficit reduction before 2027 improbable.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
交易量
$2,472结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent fiscal legislation, including the 2025 reconciliation measure extending tax provisions while expanding defense and border funding, has driven CBO baselines projecting a $1.9 trillion deficit for fiscal year 2026, with outlays continuing to exceed revenues amid rising net interest costs. This trajectory, reinforced by limited enacted spending reductions despite administration rescissions proposals and tariff revenue gains, underpins the near-certain trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Structural pressures from mandatory programs and debt service constrain reversal. Modest upside scenarios such as stronger-than-expected growth, further debt-ceiling concessions, or accelerated efficiency measures could narrow gaps by late 2026, though baseline trends make substantial deficit reduction before 2027 improbable.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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