President Donald Trump’s approval rating has declined through the first half of 2026, settling in the mid-to-high 30s in most recent polling averages amid broad dissatisfaction with the administration’s handling of the Iran conflict and related economic pressures such as inflation and recession expectations. Disapproval has reached record levels for the second term, driven by voter views on foreign policy and cost-of-living issues, though support remains firm among Republicans. The November midterm elections represent the most immediate scheduled event that could shift sentiment, depending on legislative results, any diplomatic developments in ongoing conflicts, or changes in economic data. Traders evaluating the year’s potential peak therefore focus on whether these headwinds ease or intensify before December.