**No leads at 70.5% because the historical frequency of confirmed airbursts or ground impacts releasing 5 kilotons TNT equivalent or more remains low.** Objects roughly 5–10 meters across that produce this energy scale enter Earth’s atmosphere on average every several years according to CNEOS fireball data and infrasound networks, placing the annual base rate well below 50% and often closer to 20–30%. No events meeting or exceeding this threshold occurred in 2025, and through August 2026 NASA’s near-Earth object surveys and the CTBTO infrasound array have recorded none. Ongoing cataloging of small asteroids continues to lower the chance of an undetected impactor, while typical meteor-shower activity and known close approaches have not produced detectable multi-kiloton detonations. Traders therefore price the remainder of 2026 as unlikely to deliver a qualifying strike, consistent with the observed multi-year cadence rather than any new scientific alert.