Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 67.5% implied probability for no meteoroid bolide releasing 5 kilotons TNT equivalent or greater impact energy in 2026, driven by the absence of any confirmed qualifying event through mid-May despite a record Q1 fireball surge documented by the American Meteor Society. NASA's CNEOS fireball data shows largest 2026 events, like the March 17 Ohio bolide at 0.25 kt and others under 0.2 kt, falling short of the threshold amid heightened sporadic meteoroid flux from Anthelion and high-declination sources. No tracked near-Earth objects pose impact risks per Sentry monitoring, aligning with historical baseline rates of roughly 1–5 such events annually, now halved by time elapsed. Ongoing CNEOS sensor feeds and AMS quarterly reviews could shift odds with new detections.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
$299,951 Vol.
$299,951 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$299,951 Vol.
$299,951 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 67.5% implied probability for no meteoroid bolide releasing 5 kilotons TNT equivalent or greater impact energy in 2026, driven by the absence of any confirmed qualifying event through mid-May despite a record Q1 fireball surge documented by the American Meteor Society. NASA's CNEOS fireball data shows largest 2026 events, like the March 17 Ohio bolide at 0.25 kt and others under 0.2 kt, falling short of the threshold amid heightened sporadic meteoroid flux from Anthelion and high-declination sources. No tracked near-Earth objects pose impact risks per Sentry monitoring, aligning with historical baseline rates of roughly 1–5 such events annually, now halved by time elapsed. Ongoing CNEOS sensor feeds and AMS quarterly reviews could shift odds with new detections.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
ভলিউম
$299,951শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 67.5% implied probability for no meteoroid bolide releasing 5 kilotons TNT equivalent or greater impact energy in 2026, driven by the absence of any confirmed qualifying event through mid-May despite a record Q1 fireball surge documented by the American Meteor Society. NASA's CNEOS fireball data shows largest 2026 events, like the March 17 Ohio bolide at 0.25 kt and others under 0.2 kt, falling short of the threshold amid heightened sporadic meteoroid flux from Anthelion and high-declination sources. No tracked near-Earth objects pose impact risks per Sentry monitoring, aligning with historical baseline rates of roughly 1–5 such events annually, now halved by time elapsed. Ongoing CNEOS sensor feeds and AMS quarterly reviews could shift odds with new detections.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
ভলিউম
$299,951শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 67.5% implied probability for no meteoroid bolide releasing 5 kilotons TNT equivalent or greater impact energy in 2026, driven by the absence of any confirmed qualifying event through mid-May despite a record Q1 fireball surge documented by the American Meteor Society. NASA's CNEOS fireball data shows largest 2026 events, like the March 17 Ohio bolide at 0.25 kt and others under 0.2 kt, falling short of the threshold amid heightened sporadic meteoroid flux from Anthelion and high-declination sources. No tracked near-Earth objects pose impact risks per Sentry monitoring, aligning with historical baseline rates of roughly 1–5 such events annually, now halved by time elapsed. Ongoing CNEOS sensor feeds and AMS quarterly reviews could shift odds with new detections.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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