Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and other officials have lifted market-implied odds of a September rate hike, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.76–4.79% as of September 3 after intraday peaks near 4.81%, the highest since late 2023. Elevated oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions have reinforced inflation concerns, while persistent fiscal deficits and heavy Treasury supply have widened term premiums and real yields. Friday’s August employment report and next week’s inflation data will provide key signals ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. These dynamics currently constrain downside in yields, though weaker labor readings or easing energy prices could support a near-term pullback.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডনতুন
Sep 30, 2026
Below 4.76%
63%
Below 4.73%
63%
Below 4.70%
50%
Below 4.67%
50%
Below 4.64%
50%
Below 4.61%
49%
Below 4.56%
49%
Below 4.51%
37%
Below 4.45%
34%
$0.00 Vol.
Below 4.76%
$0 Vol.
63%
Below 4.73%
$0 Vol.
63%
Below 4.70%
$0 Vol.
50%
Below 4.67%
$0 Vol.
50%
Below 4.64%
$0 Vol.
50%
Below 4.61%
$0 Vol.
49%
Below 4.56%
$0 Vol.
49%
Below 4.51%
$0 Vol.
37%
Below 4.45%
$0 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and other officials have lifted market-implied odds of a September rate hike, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.76–4.79% as of September 3 after intraday peaks near 4.81%, the highest since late 2023. Elevated oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions have reinforced inflation concerns, while persistent fiscal deficits and heavy Treasury supply have widened term premiums and real yields. Friday’s August employment report and next week’s inflation data will provide key signals ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. These dynamics currently constrain downside in yields, though weaker labor readings or easing energy prices could support a near-term pullback.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
ভলিউম
$0শেষ তারিখ
Sep 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and other officials have lifted market-implied odds of a September rate hike, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.76–4.79% as of September 3 after intraday peaks near 4.81%, the highest since late 2023. Elevated oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions have reinforced inflation concerns, while persistent fiscal deficits and heavy Treasury supply have widened term premiums and real yields. Friday’s August employment report and next week’s inflation data will provide key signals ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. These dynamics currently constrain downside in yields, though weaker labor readings or easing energy prices could support a near-term pullback.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and September 30, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for September 30, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for September 30, 2026 by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
ভলিউম
$0শেষ তারিখ
Sep 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and other officials have lifted market-implied odds of a September rate hike, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.76–4.79% as of September 3 after intraday peaks near 4.81%, the highest since late 2023. Elevated oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions have reinforced inflation concerns, while persistent fiscal deficits and heavy Treasury supply have widened term premiums and real yields. Friday’s August employment report and next week’s inflation data will provide key signals ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. These dynamics currently constrain downside in yields, though weaker labor readings or easing energy prices could support a near-term pullback.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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