The SNP's Lara Bird holds overwhelming trader consensus in this UK parliamentary by-election for the Arbroath and Broughty Ferry constituency, scheduled for 18 June 2026, following the resignation of previous MP Stephen Gethins after his election to the Scottish Parliament. The seat, created in 2024 and previously held by the SNP with a modest majority under first-past-the-post, favors the party's candidate amid limited recent polling shifts and standard by-election dynamics where the defending party maintains a strong edge. Other named contenders, including Liberal Democrat Tanvir Ahmad, Conservative Jack Cruickshanks, and independents or minor party figures such as Bill Reid and Heather Doran, trail significantly due to lower visibility and weaker local organization. Campaigns have focused on local issues like high street regeneration in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, with nominations closed and voting deadlines passed, leaving little scope for major late developments to alter the implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing.