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Politik·Brasilien

Amapá Gouverneur Wahlsieger

icon for Amapá Gouverneur Wahlsieger
Politik·Brasilien

Amapá Gouverneur Wahlsieger

Carlos Cley 26%

Clécio Luís 21%

Jairo Palheta 3.1%

Dr. Furlan 0

Polymarket
NEU

Carlos Cley 26%

Clécio Luís 21%

Jairo Palheta 3.1%

Dr. Furlan 0

Polymarket
NEU
icon for Carlos Cley

Carlos Cley

$20 Vol.

26%

icon for Clécio Luís

Clécio Luís

$20 Vol.

21%

icon for Jairo Palheta

Jairo Palheta

$20 Vol.

3%

icon for Dr. Furlan

Dr. Furlan

$61 Vol.

37%

icon for Marcos Reategui

Marcos Reategui

$40 Vol.

44%

The Amapá gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from institutes such as Real Time Big Data and Paraná Pesquisas shows Dr. Furlan (PSD) holding a substantial first-round lead over incumbent Clécio Luís (União Brasil), driven by strong regional support in Macapá and Santana amid ongoing coalition-building ahead of the October 2026 vote. Trader pricing remains more compressed because multiple candidates, including Carlos Cley and others, retain pathways through party alliances, potential runoff dynamics, and undecided voter blocs that could shift in the final weeks. PT backing for Clécio adds institutional weight, yet Furlan’s consistent double-digit margins in stimulated scenarios highlight structural advantages for the former mayor. Late campaign events, candidate withdrawals, or turnout variations in key municipalities could still widen separations reflected in current implied probabilities.

The Amapá gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$161
Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 17, 2026, 5:31 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Amapá gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Amapá gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from institutes such as Real Time Big Data and Paraná Pesquisas shows Dr. Furlan (PSD) holding a substantial first-round lead over incumbent Clécio Luís (União Brasil), driven by strong regional support in Macapá and Santana amid ongoing coalition-building ahead of the October 2026 vote. Trader pricing remains more compressed because multiple candidates, including Carlos Cley and others, retain pathways through party alliances, potential runoff dynamics, and undecided voter blocs that could shift in the final weeks. PT backing for Clécio adds institutional weight, yet Furlan’s consistent double-digit margins in stimulated scenarios highlight structural advantages for the former mayor. Late campaign events, candidate withdrawals, or turnout variations in key municipalities could still widen separations reflected in current implied probabilities.

The Amapá gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$161
Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 17, 2026, 5:31 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Amapá gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

Verwandte

icon for Wird Tarcísio de Freitas die Gouverneurswahl 2026 in São Paulo gewinnen?

Wird Tarcísio de Freitas die Gouverneurswahl 2026 in São Paulo gewinnen?

97%
Ja
icon for Wird Hana Ghassan die Wahl zur Gouverneurin von Pará gewinnen?

Wird Hana Ghassan die Wahl zur Gouverneurin von Pará gewinnen?

47%
Ja
icon for Wird Dr. Helton die Gouverneurswahl 2026 in Sergipe gewinnen?

Wird Dr. Helton die Gouverneurswahl 2026 in Sergipe gewinnen?

44%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Amapá Gouverneur Wahlsieger" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 5 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Marcos Reategui" mit 44%, gefolgt von „Dr. Furlan" mit 37%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 44¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 44% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Amapá Gouverneur Wahlsieger" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Aug 17, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

Um auf „Amapá Gouverneur Wahlsieger" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 5 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Amapá Gouverneur Wahlsieger" ist „Marcos Reategui" mit 44%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 44% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Dr. Furlan" mit 37%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Amapá Gouverneur Wahlsieger" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.