PAGASA's latest extended weather outlook forecasts a high of 34°C for Metro Manila on May 16 under partly cloudy skies with isolated thunderstorms, yet traders assign a slight edge to 35°C at 39.5% implied probability over 34°C at 36%, reflecting persistent heatwave momentum from recent days' peaks near 37°C at Quezon City Science Garden and heat indices exceeding 42°C. This tight contest stems from scientific uncertainties in convective cloud cover suppressing peaks versus sustained high solar insolation and urban heat island effects boosting them amid May's dry season climatology, where historical averages hover at 34°C. Key differentiators include sea breeze strength and thunderstorm timing; watch PAGASA's 5:00 PM update today and hourly observations tomorrow for resolution shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Manila on May 16?
Highest temperature in Manila on May 16?
35°C 39%
34°C 37%
33°C 16%
32°C 4.5%
$18,338 Vol.
$18,338 Vol.
29°C or below
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
4%
33°C
16%
34°C
37%
35°C
39%
36°C
3%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
35°C 39%
34°C 37%
33°C 16%
32°C 4.5%
$18,338 Vol.
$18,338 Vol.
29°C or below
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
4%
33°C
16%
34°C
37%
35°C
39%
36°C
3%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 14, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: No
PAGASA's latest extended weather outlook forecasts a high of 34°C for Metro Manila on May 16 under partly cloudy skies with isolated thunderstorms, yet traders assign a slight edge to 35°C at 39.5% implied probability over 34°C at 36%, reflecting persistent heatwave momentum from recent days' peaks near 37°C at Quezon City Science Garden and heat indices exceeding 42°C. This tight contest stems from scientific uncertainties in convective cloud cover suppressing peaks versus sustained high solar insolation and urban heat island effects boosting them amid May's dry season climatology, where historical averages hover at 34°C. Key differentiators include sea breeze strength and thunderstorm timing; watch PAGASA's 5:00 PM update today and hourly observations tomorrow for resolution shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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