Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System place Milan’s May 17 maximum near 21–22°C, with the tight market split between those two outcomes reflecting genuine uncertainty over afternoon cloud cover and light northerly flow. Persistent high-level moisture and variable sunshine will limit diurnal heating, keeping readings close to the mid-May climatological average of 22°C at Milano Linate. Key variables include the exact timing of any partial clearing and boundary-layer mixing; stronger winds or thicker stratiform layers could cap the peak at 20°C, while brief breaks would allow modest warming into the low 23°C range. Traders will monitor the next 00Z model runs and hourly observations for resolution signals as the 24-hour window approaches.