The by-election for Arbroath and Broughty Ferry, scheduled for 18 June 2026 following the vacancy created when former SNP MP Stephen Gethins was elected to the Scottish Parliament, features a five-candidate field that has produced closely matched market probabilities around 39-50 percent. Lara Bird for the SNP, Heather Doran for Labour, Tanvir Ahmad for the Liberal Democrats, Jack Cruickshanks for the Conservatives, and Bill Reid for Reform UK are the main contenders, with the constituency's recent general-election results showing a narrow SNP hold amid divided support across parties. Trader positioning reflects the absence of decisive polling or late developments that would favor any single candidate, alongside the short campaign timeline and first-past-the-post mechanics that amplify small shifts in turnout or preference among local voters. No major endorsements, scandals, or policy announcements have emerged in recent weeks to widen the gap, leaving the outcome dependent on final-week mobilization by the respective parties.