Extensive NASA and ESA monitoring through systems like Sentry, Scout, and CNEOS has identified no near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of delivering 5 kilotons TNT-equivalent energy via airburst or surface impact in 2026, supporting the 71% market-implied probability for "No." Continuous optical and radar tracking of the NEO catalog refines orbits for decameter-scale bodies, with recent safe close approaches and smaller recorded fireballs confirming low risk; historical detection completeness for objects of this size leaves only a narrow window for a late-discovered impactor. While seasonal meteor showers like the Perseids and occasional fireball upticks occur, they involve far smaller fragments that typically disintegrate harmlessly in the atmosphere. Trader consensus reflects this scientific baseline, tempered by inherent uncertainty in undiscovered small asteroids and the possibility of revised orbital data before year-end.