No qualifying bolide events have occurred in the first half of 2026 despite a documented Q1 surge in fireballs tracked by the American Meteor Society, with the largest release estimated at just 0.25 kt. NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies monitoring shows no near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of producing 5 kt yields, consistent with historical detection rates of roughly 0.2–0.5 such atmospheric impacts annually. Small asteroids in this size range remain difficult to detect until entry, yet current Sentry risk assessments list only negligible probabilities for any qualifying events through year-end. This evidence supports the market's 62.5% implied probability for no strike.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Golpe de meteorito de 5kt en 2026?
¿Golpe de meteorito de 5kt en 2026?
Sí
$300,653 Vol.
$300,653 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$300,653 Vol.
$300,653 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No qualifying bolide events have occurred in the first half of 2026 despite a documented Q1 surge in fireballs tracked by the American Meteor Society, with the largest release estimated at just 0.25 kt. NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies monitoring shows no near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of producing 5 kt yields, consistent with historical detection rates of roughly 0.2–0.5 such atmospheric impacts annually. Small asteroids in this size range remain difficult to detect until entry, yet current Sentry risk assessments list only negligible probabilities for any qualifying events through year-end. This evidence supports the market's 62.5% implied probability for no strike.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercado abierto: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volumen
$300,653Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No qualifying bolide events have occurred in the first half of 2026 despite a documented Q1 surge in fireballs tracked by the American Meteor Society, with the largest release estimated at just 0.25 kt. NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies monitoring shows no near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of producing 5 kt yields, consistent with historical detection rates of roughly 0.2–0.5 such atmospheric impacts annually. Small asteroids in this size range remain difficult to detect until entry, yet current Sentry risk assessments list only negligible probabilities for any qualifying events through year-end. This evidence supports the market's 62.5% implied probability for no strike.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volumen
$300,653Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No qualifying bolide events have occurred in the first half of 2026 despite a documented Q1 surge in fireballs tracked by the American Meteor Society, with the largest release estimated at just 0.25 kt. NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies monitoring shows no near-Earth objects on collision courses capable of producing 5 kt yields, consistent with historical detection rates of roughly 0.2–0.5 such atmospheric impacts annually. Small asteroids in this size range remain difficult to detect until entry, yet current Sentry risk assessments list only negligible probabilities for any qualifying events through year-end. This evidence supports the market's 62.5% implied probability for no strike.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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