Recent polls in Florida's 14th congressional district Republican primary show a close contest between former state Representative Mike Beltran and state Representative Kevin Steele, the two leading candidates with the strongest fundraising and name recognition among a crowded field. The race has tightened amid negative advertising, including disputed claims about voting records and a lawsuit over allegedly altered campaign images tied to outside groups. High undecided voter shares in surveys and the August 18 primary date leave room for late shifts in support. Traders appear to price Beltran's slight edge in the most recent internal polling against Steele's backing and local ties, while minor candidates remain low-probability options absent major endorsements or turnout surprises.