The August 18 Republican primary for Florida’s 22nd congressional district remains a tight three-way contest among self-funded candidates Michael Carbonara, Belinda Keiser, and Casey Askar, with substantial undecided voters keeping probabilities closely aligned across Polymarket outcomes. A recent Victory Insights poll showed the frontrunners statistically tied in the low teens amid more than 40 percent undecided, while Club for Growth’s endorsement of Carbonara and its attacks on Askar represent the latest spending and messaging efforts. Heavy personal investment by the top contenders, absence of a Trump endorsement, and limited name recognition among others have sustained the uncertainty, with separation likely hinging on final turnout, last-minute advertising, and voter reaction to recent negative campaigning before ballots close.