Transitional authorities under President Horta Inta-A scheduled the August 30, 2026 referendum after a military-led transition assumed power in late 2025, proposing a shift from parliamentary to presidential rule that would let the president appoint the prime minister, form the cabinet, and dissolve parliament. A national information campaign has begun in the final weeks, and the National Transitional Council has already endorsed the draft. Opposition coalitions have called for delay over limited civil society input and exclusion from drafting, while ECOWAS mediation continues, yet these pressures have not altered the timetable. Trader consensus for passage at 92.8 percent reflects the junta’s institutional control and short runway before elections. Postponement, successful boycott, or sudden regional intervention remain the main variables that could still prevent approval before the vote.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoReferéndum Constitucional de Guinea-Bissau
Referéndum Constitucional de Guinea-Bissau
Aprobado 92.9%
Fracasa 2.6%
No habrá referéndum en 2026 <1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 ago 2026
Aprobado
93%
Fracasa
3%
No habrá referéndum en 2026
<1%
Aprobado 92.9%
Fracasa 2.6%
No habrá referéndum en 2026 <1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 ago 2026
Aprobado
$3,768 Vol.
93%
Fracasa
$1,494 Vol.
3%
No habrá referéndum en 2026
$1,047 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the outcome of the 2026 Guinea-Bissau constitutional referendum, currently scheduled to be held on August 30, 2026.
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is approved, meeting any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Passes."
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is rejected by voters, or the referendum fails to meet any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Fails."
If no constitutional referendum occurs in Guinea-Bissau by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No Referendum in 2026."
If the referendum occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, but the results are not known definitively by that time, this market will resolve to "Other."
For the purposes of this market, "quorum" refers to whatever participation or approval threshold, if any, is required under Guinea-Bissau's applicable law or the transitional authorities' referendum framework for the new constitution to enter into force. If no quorum requirement applies, resolution will be based solely on whether the affirmative vote prevails.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If there exists any ambiguity, this market will resolve solely according to official information from the entity responsible for conducting the referendum, including Guinea-Bissau's transitional authorities and electoral bodies (e.g., the National Electoral Commission or its successor under the military-led transitional government).Transitional authorities under President Horta Inta-A scheduled the August 30, 2026 referendum after a military-led transition assumed power in late 2025, proposing a shift from parliamentary to presidential rule that would let the president appoint the prime minister, form the cabinet, and dissolve parliament. A national information campaign has begun in the final weeks, and the National Transitional Council has already endorsed the draft. Opposition coalitions have called for delay over limited civil society input and exclusion from drafting, while ECOWAS mediation continues, yet these pressures have not altered the timetable. Trader consensus for passage at 92.8 percent reflects the junta’s institutional control and short runway before elections. Postponement, successful boycott, or sudden regional intervention remain the main variables that could still prevent approval before the vote.
This market will resolve according to the outcome of the 2026 Guinea-Bissau constitutional referendum, currently scheduled to be held on August 30, 2026.
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is approved, meeting any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Passes."
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is rejected by voters, or the referendum fails to meet any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Fails."
If no constitutional referendum occurs in Guinea-Bissau by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No Referendum in 2026."
If the referendum occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, but the results are not known definitively by that time, this market will resolve to "Other."
For the purposes of this market, "quorum" refers to whatever participation or approval threshold, if any, is required under Guinea-Bissau's applicable law or the transitional authorities' referendum framework for the new constitution to enter into force. If no quorum requirement applies, resolution will be based solely on whether the affirmative vote prevails.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If there exists any ambiguity, this market will resolve solely according to official information from the entity responsible for conducting the referendum, including Guinea-Bissau's transitional authorities and electoral bodies (e.g., the National Electoral Commission or its successor under the military-led transitional government).
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is approved, meeting any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Passes."
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is rejected by voters, or the referendum fails to meet any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Fails."
If no constitutional referendum occurs in Guinea-Bissau by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No Referendum in 2026."
If the referendum occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, but the results are not known definitively by that time, this market will resolve to "Other."
For the purposes of this market, "quorum" refers to whatever participation or approval threshold, if any, is required under Guinea-Bissau's applicable law or the transitional authorities' referendum framework for the new constitution to enter into force. If no quorum requirement applies, resolution will be based solely on whether the affirmative vote prevails.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If there exists any ambiguity, this market will resolve solely according to official information from the entity responsible for conducting the referendum, including Guinea-Bissau's transitional authorities and electoral bodies (e.g., the National Electoral Commission or its successor under the military-led transitional government).
Mercado abierto: Jul 23, 2026, 7:19 PM ET
Volumen
$6,310Fecha de finalización
30 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 23, 2026, 7:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the outcome of the 2026 Guinea-Bissau constitutional referendum, currently scheduled to be held on August 30, 2026.
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is approved, meeting any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Passes."
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is rejected by voters, or the referendum fails to meet any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Fails."
If no constitutional referendum occurs in Guinea-Bissau by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No Referendum in 2026."
If the referendum occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, but the results are not known definitively by that time, this market will resolve to "Other."
For the purposes of this market, "quorum" refers to whatever participation or approval threshold, if any, is required under Guinea-Bissau's applicable law or the transitional authorities' referendum framework for the new constitution to enter into force. If no quorum requirement applies, resolution will be based solely on whether the affirmative vote prevails.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If there exists any ambiguity, this market will resolve solely according to official information from the entity responsible for conducting the referendum, including Guinea-Bissau's transitional authorities and electoral bodies (e.g., the National Electoral Commission or its successor under the military-led transitional government).Transitional authorities under President Horta Inta-A scheduled the August 30, 2026 referendum after a military-led transition assumed power in late 2025, proposing a shift from parliamentary to presidential rule that would let the president appoint the prime minister, form the cabinet, and dissolve parliament. A national information campaign has begun in the final weeks, and the National Transitional Council has already endorsed the draft. Opposition coalitions have called for delay over limited civil society input and exclusion from drafting, while ECOWAS mediation continues, yet these pressures have not altered the timetable. Trader consensus for passage at 92.8 percent reflects the junta’s institutional control and short runway before elections. Postponement, successful boycott, or sudden regional intervention remain the main variables that could still prevent approval before the vote.
This market will resolve according to the outcome of the 2026 Guinea-Bissau constitutional referendum, currently scheduled to be held on August 30, 2026.
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is approved, meeting any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Passes."
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is rejected by voters, or the referendum fails to meet any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Fails."
If no constitutional referendum occurs in Guinea-Bissau by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No Referendum in 2026."
If the referendum occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, but the results are not known definitively by that time, this market will resolve to "Other."
For the purposes of this market, "quorum" refers to whatever participation or approval threshold, if any, is required under Guinea-Bissau's applicable law or the transitional authorities' referendum framework for the new constitution to enter into force. If no quorum requirement applies, resolution will be based solely on whether the affirmative vote prevails.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If there exists any ambiguity, this market will resolve solely according to official information from the entity responsible for conducting the referendum, including Guinea-Bissau's transitional authorities and electoral bodies (e.g., the National Electoral Commission or its successor under the military-led transitional government).
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is approved, meeting any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Passes."
If the referendum occurs and results are known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the proposed constitution is rejected by voters, or the referendum fails to meet any turnout quorum or other threshold legally required for the referendum to pass, this market will resolve to "Fails."
If no constitutional referendum occurs in Guinea-Bissau by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No Referendum in 2026."
If the referendum occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, but the results are not known definitively by that time, this market will resolve to "Other."
For the purposes of this market, "quorum" refers to whatever participation or approval threshold, if any, is required under Guinea-Bissau's applicable law or the transitional authorities' referendum framework for the new constitution to enter into force. If no quorum requirement applies, resolution will be based solely on whether the affirmative vote prevails.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If there exists any ambiguity, this market will resolve solely according to official information from the entity responsible for conducting the referendum, including Guinea-Bissau's transitional authorities and electoral bodies (e.g., the National Electoral Commission or its successor under the military-led transitional government).
Volumen
$6,310Fecha de finalización
30 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 23, 2026, 7:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Transitional authorities under President Horta Inta-A scheduled the August 30, 2026 referendum after a military-led transition assumed power in late 2025, proposing a shift from parliamentary to presidential rule that would let the president appoint the prime minister, form the cabinet, and dissolve parliament. A national information campaign has begun in the final weeks, and the National Transitional Council has already endorsed the draft. Opposition coalitions have called for delay over limited civil society input and exclusion from drafting, while ECOWAS mediation continues, yet these pressures have not altered the timetable. Trader consensus for passage at 92.8 percent reflects the junta’s institutional control and short runway before elections. Postponement, successful boycott, or sudden regional intervention remain the main variables that could still prevent approval before the vote.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿Ganará Fernando Dias da Costa las elecciones presidenciales de Guinea-Bisáu de 2025?
15%
Sí
¿Ganarà la Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” la mayoría de los escaños en las elecciones a la Asamblea Nacional Popular de Guinea-Bissau de 2025?
31%
Sí
¿Avanzará Turquía hacia una nueva constitución en 2026?
16%
Sí
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes