Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service forecasts and model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF, which project Houston's May 16 high temperature clustering around 86°F under a strengthening high-pressure ridge over Texas, following above-normal readings like 90°F at Hobby Airport on May 13. The slight edge to 86-87°F (39%) stems from ensemble means aligning near the May 16 climatological normal of 87°F at IAH, while 88°F+ (31.5%) gains from potential enhanced boundary-layer mixing and prolonged solar insolation if sea-breeze timing delays. Lower odds for 84-85°F (27.5%) account for risks of afternoon cumulus clouds or light onshore flow capping peaks; new 12z model runs expected today could refine this spread amid typical spring forecast divergence.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Houston on May 16?
Highest temperature in Houston on May 16?
86-87°F 40%
88°F or higher 35%
84-85°F 26%
82-83°F 4.3%
NUEVO
$15,136 Vol.
NUEVO
$15,136 Vol.
16 may 2026
69°F or below
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
4%
84-85°F
26%
86-87°F
40%
88°F or higher
35%
86-87°F 40%
88°F or higher 35%
84-85°F 26%
82-83°F 4.3%
NUEVO
$15,136 Vol.
NUEVO
$15,136 Vol.
16 may 2026
69°F or below
$2,336 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$4,273 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$2,838 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$2,136 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$1,838 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$202 Vol.
1%
80-81°F
$158 Vol.
1%
82-83°F
$104 Vol.
4%
84-85°F
$785 Vol.
26%
86-87°F
$201 Vol.
40%
88°F or higher
$263 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service forecasts and model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF, which project Houston's May 16 high temperature clustering around 86°F under a strengthening high-pressure ridge over Texas, following above-normal readings like 90°F at Hobby Airport on May 13. The slight edge to 86-87°F (39%) stems from ensemble means aligning near the May 16 climatological normal of 87°F at IAH, while 88°F+ (31.5%) gains from potential enhanced boundary-layer mixing and prolonged solar insolation if sea-breeze timing delays. Lower odds for 84-85°F (27.5%) account for risks of afternoon cumulus clouds or light onshore flow capping peaks; new 12z model runs expected today could refine this spread amid typical spring forecast divergence.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 14, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volumen
$15,136Fecha de finalización
16 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 14, 2026, 12:08 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service forecasts and model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF, which project Houston's May 16 high temperature clustering around 86°F under a strengthening high-pressure ridge over Texas, following above-normal readings like 90°F at Hobby Airport on May 13. The slight edge to 86-87°F (39%) stems from ensemble means aligning near the May 16 climatological normal of 87°F at IAH, while 88°F+ (31.5%) gains from potential enhanced boundary-layer mixing and prolonged solar insolation if sea-breeze timing delays. Lower odds for 84-85°F (27.5%) account for risks of afternoon cumulus clouds or light onshore flow capping peaks; new 12z model runs expected today could refine this spread amid typical spring forecast divergence.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$15,136Fecha de finalización
16 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 14, 2026, 12:08 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service forecasts and model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF, which project Houston's May 16 high temperature clustering around 86°F under a strengthening high-pressure ridge over Texas, following above-normal readings like 90°F at Hobby Airport on May 13. The slight edge to 86-87°F (39%) stems from ensemble means aligning near the May 16 climatological normal of 87°F at IAH, while 88°F+ (31.5%) gains from potential enhanced boundary-layer mixing and prolonged solar insolation if sea-breeze timing delays. Lower odds for 84-85°F (27.5%) account for risks of afternoon cumulus clouds or light onshore flow capping peaks; new 12z model runs expected today could refine this spread amid typical spring forecast divergence.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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