Ongoing tensions from the 2026 Iran conflict continue to restrict commercial vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz, with recent seizures, attacks, and mine-laying operations by Iranian forces keeping daily transits at single-digit levels or lower. Shipping data for early May showed weekly totals around 18 traceable passages amid widespread use of dark transits and rerouting, well below the pre-crisis average exceeding 400 per week. US-led mine-clearance efforts and paused escort operations have yet to restore normal flow, while elevated insurance costs and Iranian assertions of control further deter operators. These factors sustain trader consensus around the 20-39 range as the most probable outcome for the week of May 18, with separation likely only if verifiable de-escalation or clearance milestones emerge before week's end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 18?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 18?
20-39 44%
<20 30%
40-59 23%
60-79 18%
NUEVO
NUEVO
24 may 2026
<20
30%
20-39
42%
40-59
23%
60-79
18%
80+
17%
20-39 44%
<20 30%
40-59 23%
60-79 18%
NUEVO
NUEVO
24 may 2026
<20
$91 Vol.
30%
20-39
$77 Vol.
42%
40-59
$43 Vol.
23%
60-79
$43 Vol.
18%
80+
$51 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 18, 2026, through May 24, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing tensions from the 2026 Iran conflict continue to restrict commercial vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz, with recent seizures, attacks, and mine-laying operations by Iranian forces keeping daily transits at single-digit levels or lower. Shipping data for early May showed weekly totals around 18 traceable passages amid widespread use of dark transits and rerouting, well below the pre-crisis average exceeding 400 per week. US-led mine-clearance efforts and paused escort operations have yet to restore normal flow, while elevated insurance costs and Iranian assertions of control further deter operators. These factors sustain trader consensus around the 20-39 range as the most probable outcome for the week of May 18, with separation likely only if verifiable de-escalation or clearance milestones emerge before week's end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 18, 2026, through May 24, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado abierto: May 18, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
Volumen
$297Fecha de finalización
24 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 18, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 18, 2026, through May 24, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing tensions from the 2026 Iran conflict continue to restrict commercial vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz, with recent seizures, attacks, and mine-laying operations by Iranian forces keeping daily transits at single-digit levels or lower. Shipping data for early May showed weekly totals around 18 traceable passages amid widespread use of dark transits and rerouting, well below the pre-crisis average exceeding 400 per week. US-led mine-clearance efforts and paused escort operations have yet to restore normal flow, while elevated insurance costs and Iranian assertions of control further deter operators. These factors sustain trader consensus around the 20-39 range as the most probable outcome for the week of May 18, with separation likely only if verifiable de-escalation or clearance milestones emerge before week's end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 18, 2026, through May 24, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$297Fecha de finalización
24 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 18, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing tensions from the 2026 Iran conflict continue to restrict commercial vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz, with recent seizures, attacks, and mine-laying operations by Iranian forces keeping daily transits at single-digit levels or lower. Shipping data for early May showed weekly totals around 18 traceable passages amid widespread use of dark transits and rerouting, well below the pre-crisis average exceeding 400 per week. US-led mine-clearance efforts and paused escort operations have yet to restore normal flow, while elevated insurance costs and Iranian assertions of control further deter operators. These factors sustain trader consensus around the 20-39 range as the most probable outcome for the week of May 18, with separation likely only if verifiable de-escalation or clearance milestones emerge before week's end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes