Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Indonesia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and Indonesia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Indonesia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and Indonesia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Indonesia’s longstanding policy conditions formal diplomatic recognition of Israel on the latter’s acknowledgment of an independent Palestinian state, a stance reaffirmed by President Prabowo Subianto in his September 2025 UN General Assembly address and subsequent statements. No such Israeli recognition has occurred, and recent Indonesian actions—including condemnations tied to Gaza developments—underscore continued alignment with the Palestinian cause. Domestic polling shows strong public opposition to normalization, limiting political space despite incentives such as Indonesia’s OECD accession bid and a February 2026 U.S.-Indonesia trade agreement that ties economic ties to broader strategic alignment. With the June 30, 2026 resolution deadline approaching, the absence of breakthrough announcements or shifts in the two-state framework keeps trader-implied probabilities low.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Indonesia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and Indonesia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Indonesia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and Indonesia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indonesia’s longstanding policy conditions formal diplomatic recognition of Israel on the latter’s acknowledgment of an independent Palestinian state, a stance reaffirmed by President Prabowo Subianto in his September 2025 UN General Assembly address and subsequent statements. No such Israeli recognition has occurred, and recent Indonesian actions—including condemnations tied to Gaza developments—underscore continued alignment with the Palestinian cause. Domestic polling shows strong public opposition to normalization, limiting political space despite incentives such as Indonesia’s OECD accession bid and a February 2026 U.S.-Indonesia trade agreement that ties economic ties to broader strategic alignment. With the June 30, 2026 resolution deadline approaching, the absence of breakthrough announcements or shifts in the two-state framework keeps trader-implied probabilities low.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Mar 6 2026
Market falls sharply as no concrete diplomatic announcements materialize
June 30, 2026 drops to 8%8%
Disappointment over lack of formal steps caused a swift decline.
Mar 4 2026
Market briefly rallies on speculation of incremental diplomatic progress between Indonesia and Israel
June 30, 2026 jumps to 16%13%
Speculation about phased cooperation raised hopes temporarily.
Feb 27 2026
Indonesian government clarifies it will not coordinate with Israeli forces in Gaza peacekeeping, emphasizing no recognition of Israel
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
This statement reinforced Indonesia’s stance against practical recognition of Israel, contributing to.
Feb 27 2026
Indonesian troops prepare for Gaza peacekeeping mission but avoid Israeli-controlled areas to prevent recognition of Israel
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%3%
This cautious approach highlighted Indonesia’s balancing act, reducing normalization prospects.
Feb 13 2026
Indonesia reaffirms support for Palestine as Israel joins Gaza peace board, with no policy shift toward Israel
June 30, 2026 drops to 6%8%
Indonesia’s firm stance on Palestine despite Israel’s regional engagement signaled little near-term change.
Feb 13 2026
Indonesia reaffirms support for Palestine as Israel joins Gaza peace board, with no policy shift toward normalization
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%1%
Indonesia’s continued support for Palestine despite Israel’s inclusion in the peace board signaled no immediate diplomatic breakthrough.
Nov 11 2025
Ongoing reports of quiet trade and cooperation persist but no formal diplomatic ties established
Despite economic and security contacts, the lack of official diplomatic announcements kept market confidence low.
Oct 22 2025
Indonesian hosting of the World Artistic Gymnastics Championships excludes Israeli athletes, reflecting political sensitivities
This event underscored Indonesia’s reluctance to cross certain diplomatic lines, maintaining status quo.
Oct 13 2025
Indonesian President Prabowo attends a world leaders’ summit on ending Gaza war, signaling a softer tone but no formal diplomatic steps
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%3%
Prabowo’s engagement raised hopes for future normalization but no concrete announcements were made.
Oct 13 2025
Reports emerge that President Subianto plans an official visit to Israel, later denied by Indonesia’s Foreign Minister
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%3%
The denial highlighted ongoing political sensitivities and stalled progress, causing a slight.
Oct 13 2025
Reports emerge of Prabowo’s planned visit to Israel, later denied by Indonesian Foreign Minister Sugiono
June 30, 2026 dips to 18%4%
The denial highlighted ongoing political sensitivities and domestic resistance, causing a
May 28 2025
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto states willingness to normalize relations with Israel only if Israel recognizes a Palestinian state
June 30, 2026 drops to 22%12%
Prabowo’s conditional stance signaled openness but maintained a significant diplomatic hurdle, tempering market optimism.
May 28 2025
Indonesia’s OECD accession process requires diplomatic relations with Israel, but Indonesia maintains distance
December 31, 2026 drops to 27%5%
The OECD leverage creates diplomatic pressure but Indonesia’s reluctance to normalize without Palestinian recognition limits progress.
May 28 2025
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto publicly states willingness to establish diplomatic relations with Israel if Israel recognizes a Palestinian state
December 31, 2026 plunges to 32%20%
This announcement raised initial hopes for normalization but underscored the Palestinian recognition condition, tempering market optimism.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Indonesia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and Indonesia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Indonesia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and Indonesia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Indonesia’s longstanding policy conditions formal diplomatic recognition of Israel on the latter’s acknowledgment of an independent Palestinian state, a stance reaffirmed by President Prabowo Subianto in his September 2025 UN General Assembly address and subsequent statements. No such Israeli recognition has occurred, and recent Indonesian actions—including condemnations tied to Gaza developments—underscore continued alignment with the Palestinian cause. Domestic polling shows strong public opposition to normalization, limiting political space despite incentives such as Indonesia’s OECD accession bid and a February 2026 U.S.-Indonesia trade agreement that ties economic ties to broader strategic alignment. With the June 30, 2026 resolution deadline approaching, the absence of breakthrough announcements or shifts in the two-state framework keeps trader-implied probabilities low.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Indonesia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and Indonesia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Indonesia officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and Indonesia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indonesia’s longstanding policy conditions formal diplomatic recognition of Israel on the latter’s acknowledgment of an independent Palestinian state, a stance reaffirmed by President Prabowo Subianto in his September 2025 UN General Assembly address and subsequent statements. No such Israeli recognition has occurred, and recent Indonesian actions—including condemnations tied to Gaza developments—underscore continued alignment with the Palestinian cause. Domestic polling shows strong public opposition to normalization, limiting political space despite incentives such as Indonesia’s OECD accession bid and a February 2026 U.S.-Indonesia trade agreement that ties economic ties to broader strategic alignment. With the June 30, 2026 resolution deadline approaching, the absence of breakthrough announcements or shifts in the two-state framework keeps trader-implied probabilities low.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Mar 6 2026
Market falls sharply as no concrete diplomatic announcements materialize
June 30, 2026 drops to 8%8%
Disappointment over lack of formal steps caused a swift decline.
Mar 4 2026
Market briefly rallies on speculation of incremental diplomatic progress between Indonesia and Israel
June 30, 2026 jumps to 16%13%
Speculation about phased cooperation raised hopes temporarily.
Feb 27 2026
Indonesian government clarifies it will not coordinate with Israeli forces in Gaza peacekeeping, emphasizing no recognition of Israel
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
This statement reinforced Indonesia’s stance against practical recognition of Israel, contributing to.
Feb 27 2026
Indonesian troops prepare for Gaza peacekeeping mission but avoid Israeli-controlled areas to prevent recognition of Israel
June 30, 2026 dips to 3%3%
This cautious approach highlighted Indonesia’s balancing act, reducing normalization prospects.
Feb 13 2026
Indonesia reaffirms support for Palestine as Israel joins Gaza peace board, with no policy shift toward Israel
June 30, 2026 drops to 6%8%
Indonesia’s firm stance on Palestine despite Israel’s regional engagement signaled little near-term change.
Feb 13 2026
Indonesia reaffirms support for Palestine as Israel joins Gaza peace board, with no policy shift toward normalization
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%1%
Indonesia’s continued support for Palestine despite Israel’s inclusion in the peace board signaled no immediate diplomatic breakthrough.
Nov 11 2025
Ongoing reports of quiet trade and cooperation persist but no formal diplomatic ties established
Despite economic and security contacts, the lack of official diplomatic announcements kept market confidence low.
Oct 22 2025
Indonesian hosting of the World Artistic Gymnastics Championships excludes Israeli athletes, reflecting political sensitivities
This event underscored Indonesia’s reluctance to cross certain diplomatic lines, maintaining status quo.
Oct 13 2025
Indonesian President Prabowo attends a world leaders’ summit on ending Gaza war, signaling a softer tone but no formal diplomatic steps
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%3%
Prabowo’s engagement raised hopes for future normalization but no concrete announcements were made.
Oct 13 2025
Reports emerge that President Subianto plans an official visit to Israel, later denied by Indonesia’s Foreign Minister
December 31, 2026 dips to 27%3%
The denial highlighted ongoing political sensitivities and stalled progress, causing a slight.
Oct 13 2025
Reports emerge of Prabowo’s planned visit to Israel, later denied by Indonesian Foreign Minister Sugiono
June 30, 2026 dips to 18%4%
The denial highlighted ongoing political sensitivities and domestic resistance, causing a
May 28 2025
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto states willingness to normalize relations with Israel only if Israel recognizes a Palestinian state
June 30, 2026 drops to 22%12%
Prabowo’s conditional stance signaled openness but maintained a significant diplomatic hurdle, tempering market optimism.
May 28 2025
Indonesia’s OECD accession process requires diplomatic relations with Israel, but Indonesia maintains distance
December 31, 2026 drops to 27%5%
The OECD leverage creates diplomatic pressure but Indonesia’s reluctance to normalize without Palestinian recognition limits progress.
May 28 2025
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto publicly states willingness to establish diplomatic relations with Israel if Israel recognizes a Palestinian state
December 31, 2026 plunges to 32%20%
This announcement raised initial hopes for normalization but underscored the Palestinian recognition condition, tempering market optimism.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes
"Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "December 31, 2026" con 10%, seguido de "June 30, 2026" con 0%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 10¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 10% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.
A día de hoy, "Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?" ha generado $3.4 million en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Nov 11, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.
Para operar en "Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.
El favorito actual para "Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?" es "December 31, 2026" con 10%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 10% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "June 30, 2026" con 0%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.
Las reglas de resolución para "Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.
Sí. No necesitas operar para mantenerte informado. Esta página sirve como rastreador en vivo para "Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?". Las probabilidades de los resultados se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que entran nuevas operaciones. Puedes guardar esta página en marcadores y consultar la sección de comentarios para ver lo que dicen otros operadores. También puedes usar los filtros de rango temporal en el gráfico para ver cómo han cambiado las probabilidades a lo largo del tiempo.
Las probabilidades de Polymarket son establecidas por operadores reales que ponen dinero real detrás de sus creencias, lo que tiende a generar predicciones precisas. Con $3.4 million operados en “Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?”, estos precios agregan el conocimiento colectivo y la convicción de miles de participantes — a menudo superando a encuestas, pronósticos de expertos y estudios tradicionales. Los mercados de predicción como Polymarket tienen un sólido historial de precisión, especialmente cuando los eventos se acercan a su fecha de resolución. Por ejemplo, Polymarket tiene una puntuación de precisión a un mes de 94%. Para las últimas estadísticas sobre la precisión de predicción de Polymarket, visita la página de precisión en Polymarket.
Para realizar tu primera operación en "Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?", regístrate en una cuenta gratuita de Polymarket y deposita fondos usando criptomonedas, tarjeta de crédito o débito, o transferencia bancaria. Una vez que tu cuenta tenga fondos, vuelve a esta página, selecciona el resultado en el que quieras operar, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si eres nuevo en los mercados de predicción, haz clic en el enlace "Cómo funciona" en la parte superior de cualquier página de Polymarket para una guía paso a paso.
En Polymarket, el precio de cada resultado representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Un precio de 10¢ para "December 31, 2026" en el mercado "Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?" significa que los operadores colectivamente creen que hay aproximadamente una probabilidad de 10% de que "December 31, 2026" sea el resultado correcto. Si compras acciones de "Sí" a 10¢ y el resultado es correcto, recibes $1,00 por acción, una ganancia de 90¢ por acción. Si es incorrecto, esas acciones valen $0.
El mercado "Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?" está programado para resolverse en o alrededor del Dec 30, 2026. Esto significa que el trading permanecerá abierto y las probabilidades seguirán cambiando hasta esa fecha. El momento exacto de resolución depende de cuándo esté disponible el resultado oficial, como se describe en la sección "Reglas".
El mercado "Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?" tiene una comunidad activa de 22 comentarios donde los operadores comparten sus análisis, debaten resultados y discuten los últimos desarrollos. Desplázate hacia abajo a la sección de comentarios para leer lo que piensan otros participantes. También puedes filtrar por "Principales poseedores" o consultar la pestaña "Actividad" para un feed en tiempo real de operaciones.
Polymarket es el mercado de predicción más grande del mundo, donde puedes mantenerte informado y beneficiarte de tu conocimiento sobre eventos del mundo real. Los operadores compran y venden acciones sobre resultados de temas que van desde política y elecciones hasta criptomonedas, finanzas, deportes, tecnología y cultura, incluyendo mercados como "Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?". Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real respaldadas por convicción financiera, ofreciendo a menudo señales más rápidas y precisas que las encuestas, los expertos o los estudios tradicionales.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes