**Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five posts by Khamenei (or his official accounts) during September 8–15, 2026, at 82.5% implied probability.** This reflects the established low frequency of activity on @khamenei_ir and related channels such as @MKhamenei_ir. Official accounts typically issue occasional written statements or repost archival material rather than posting daily. Recent examples include a late-August message on Islamic unity and Gulf cooperation, plus a September 4 statement on national cohesion, both distributed primarily via Telegram and state media with limited X amplification. Posting rates have averaged well under one original item per day in recent months, with activity on only about 10% of days. The broader context of the post-conflict environment—following the 2026 Iran war, leadership transition after Ali Khamenei’s death, and Mojtaba Khamenei’s limited public profile—further constrains output. Statements tend to cluster around specific commemorations or policy signals rather than routine daily commentary. Higher-volume buckets (5–9 or above) carry single-digit probabilities because they would require a sustained increase in activity inconsistent with recent patterns. Scheduled events or escalations in the resolution window could still shift volumes, but current trader pricing embeds the baseline of infrequent official communications.