**Trader consensus has coalesced around a 13°C minimum for Paris on September 17, 2026, at 99% implied probability, reflecting near-unanimous forecast guidance from models and official sources.** Persistent mild conditions under a broad westerly flow have kept overnight temperatures elevated compared with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 11.4°C. Multiple runs show the mercury bottoming near 13°C in the pre-dawn hours after daytime highs reached 21–22°C, with dew points and humidity supporting gradual radiational cooling rather than sharp drops. Recent model consensus and station observations have shown minimal spread, reinforcing the 13°C outcome as the market-implied mode. A realistic challenge would require either a faster-than-expected clearing of cloud cover combined with lighter winds or an official Météo-France or station-specific reading that registers 12°C or lower due to microclimate effects—both low-probability given the current stable pattern and limited forecast uncertainty on this short time scale.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en París el 17 de septiembre?
¿Temperatura más baja en París el 17 de septiembre?
13°C 100.0%
8°C o menos <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$5,852 Vol.
$5,852 Vol.
17 sep 2026
8°C o menos
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
Sí
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C o más
No
13°C 100.0%
8°C o menos <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$5,852 Vol.
$5,852 Vol.
17 sep 2026
8°C o menos
$41 Vol.
No
9°C
$41 Vol.
No
10°C
$388 Vol.
No
11°C
$1,090 Vol.
No
12°C
$1,485 Vol.
No
13°C
$1,835 Vol.
Sí
14°C
$789 Vol.
No
15°C
$55 Vol.
No
16°C
$41 Vol.
No
17°C
$46 Vol.
No
18°C o más
$41 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus has coalesced around a 13°C minimum for Paris on September 17, 2026, at 99% implied probability, reflecting near-unanimous forecast guidance from models and official sources.**
Persistent mild conditions under a broad westerly flow have kept overnight temperatures elevated compared with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 11.4°C. Multiple runs show the mercury bottoming near 13°C in the pre-dawn hours after daytime highs reached 21–22°C, with dew points and humidity supporting gradual radiational cooling rather than sharp drops.
Recent model consensus and station observations have shown minimal spread, reinforcing the 13°C outcome as the market-implied mode.
A realistic challenge would require either a faster-than-expected clearing of cloud cover combined with lighter winds or an official Météo-France or station-specific reading that registers 12°C or lower due to microclimate effects—both low-probability given the current stable pattern and limited forecast uncertainty on this short time scale.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 15, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volumen
$5,852Fecha de finalización
17 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 15, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus has coalesced around a 13°C minimum for Paris on September 17, 2026, at 99% implied probability, reflecting near-unanimous forecast guidance from models and official sources.**
Persistent mild conditions under a broad westerly flow have kept overnight temperatures elevated compared with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 11.4°C. Multiple runs show the mercury bottoming near 13°C in the pre-dawn hours after daytime highs reached 21–22°C, with dew points and humidity supporting gradual radiational cooling rather than sharp drops.
Recent model consensus and station observations have shown minimal spread, reinforcing the 13°C outcome as the market-implied mode.
A realistic challenge would require either a faster-than-expected clearing of cloud cover combined with lighter winds or an official Météo-France or station-specific reading that registers 12°C or lower due to microclimate effects—both low-probability given the current stable pattern and limited forecast uncertainty on this short time scale.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$5,852Fecha de finalización
17 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 15, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
**Trader consensus has coalesced around a 13°C minimum for Paris on September 17, 2026, at 99% implied probability, reflecting near-unanimous forecast guidance from models and official sources.** Persistent mild conditions under a broad westerly flow have kept overnight temperatures elevated compared with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 11.4°C. Multiple runs show the mercury bottoming near 13°C in the pre-dawn hours after daytime highs reached 21–22°C, with dew points and humidity supporting gradual radiational cooling rather than sharp drops. Recent model consensus and station observations have shown minimal spread, reinforcing the 13°C outcome as the market-implied mode. A realistic challenge would require either a faster-than-expected clearing of cloud cover combined with lighter winds or an official Météo-France or station-specific reading that registers 12°C or lower due to microclimate effects—both low-probability given the current stable pattern and limited forecast uncertainty on this short time scale.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes