Recent polling from July 2026 shows a fragmented field for Minas Gerais’s two Senate seats, with Marília Campos (PT) and Aécio Neves (PSDB) frequently topping or tying scenarios at 16-20%, followed closely by Carlos Viana (PSD), Domingos Sávio (PL), and Marcelo Aro (PP) in the 10-16% range. The August 16 start of official campaigning and absence of a dominant incumbent or consolidated coalition have kept support dispersed across left, center, and right-leaning options. This broad distribution of preferences sustains low implied probabilities for any single name in the 1st-place market, as modest shifts in alliances, turnout among key voting blocs, or late endorsements could reorder the top tier before the October 4 vote.