Strong consensus among forecasters underpins the 97.5% market-implied probability that U.S. real GDP growth will avoid contraction in 2026. Major institutions including the CBO, IMF, and private banks project annual growth of 2.0–2.3%, supported by resilient consumer spending, robust AI-driven business investment, and productivity gains that have kept quarterly expansions positive, including the 1.5% annualized Q2 2026 reading. A stable labor market and fiscal measures have further offset headwinds from elevated energy prices and inflation near 3.7% PCE. Trader sentiment reflects these data-driven baselines, though tail risks such as sharper Middle East oil shocks, intensified tariffs compressing trade, or an abrupt moderation in AI capital expenditures could still alter the trajectory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Crecimiento negativo del PIB en 2026?
¿Crecimiento negativo del PIB en 2026?
Sí
3% probabilidad
$33,278 Vol.
$33,278 Vol.
28 ene 2027
Sí
3% probabilidad
$33,278 Vol.
$33,278 Vol.
28 ene 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong consensus among forecasters underpins the 97.5% market-implied probability that U.S. real GDP growth will avoid contraction in 2026. Major institutions including the CBO, IMF, and private banks project annual growth of 2.0–2.3%, supported by resilient consumer spending, robust AI-driven business investment, and productivity gains that have kept quarterly expansions positive, including the 1.5% annualized Q2 2026 reading. A stable labor market and fiscal measures have further offset headwinds from elevated energy prices and inflation near 3.7% PCE. Trader sentiment reflects these data-driven baselines, though tail risks such as sharper Middle East oil shocks, intensified tariffs compressing trade, or an abrupt moderation in AI capital expenditures could still alter the trajectory.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volumen
$33,278Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong consensus among forecasters underpins the 97.5% market-implied probability that U.S. real GDP growth will avoid contraction in 2026. Major institutions including the CBO, IMF, and private banks project annual growth of 2.0–2.3%, supported by resilient consumer spending, robust AI-driven business investment, and productivity gains that have kept quarterly expansions positive, including the 1.5% annualized Q2 2026 reading. A stable labor market and fiscal measures have further offset headwinds from elevated energy prices and inflation near 3.7% PCE. Trader sentiment reflects these data-driven baselines, though tail risks such as sharper Middle East oil shocks, intensified tariffs compressing trade, or an abrupt moderation in AI capital expenditures could still alter the trajectory.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volumen
$33,278Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong consensus among forecasters underpins the 97.5% market-implied probability that U.S. real GDP growth will avoid contraction in 2026. Major institutions including the CBO, IMF, and private banks project annual growth of 2.0–2.3%, supported by resilient consumer spending, robust AI-driven business investment, and productivity gains that have kept quarterly expansions positive, including the 1.5% annualized Q2 2026 reading. A stable labor market and fiscal measures have further offset headwinds from elevated energy prices and inflation near 3.7% PCE. Trader sentiment reflects these data-driven baselines, though tail risks such as sharper Middle East oil shocks, intensified tariffs compressing trade, or an abrupt moderation in AI capital expenditures could still alter the trajectory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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