Incumbent Democratic Representative Tim Kennedy holds a commanding position in the NY-26 House race, reflected in the 94% trader consensus for the Democratic Party. The district's Solid D rating and Kennedy's 2024 general election margin above 30 points establish a durable base-rate advantage reinforced by incumbency. The Republican primary was canceled in June 2026, allowing Dennis Hannon to advance unopposed, yet no subsequent polling shifts or major campaign developments have narrowed the gap ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader pricing therefore embeds the limited competitive pathways available to Republicans in this upstate New York seat. Late-cycle events such as unexpected scandals, significant health developments, or unusually strong national Republican tailwinds would be required to materially alter the current implied probability.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones a la Cámara de Representantes de NY-26
Ganador de las elecciones a la Cámara de Representantes de NY-26
$26,592 Vol.
$26,592 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
94%
Partido Republicano
4%
$26,592 Vol.
$26,592 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$14,424 Vol.
94%
Partido Republicano
$12,168 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Tim Kennedy holds a commanding position in the NY-26 House race, reflected in the 94% trader consensus for the Democratic Party. The district's Solid D rating and Kennedy's 2024 general election margin above 30 points establish a durable base-rate advantage reinforced by incumbency. The Republican primary was canceled in June 2026, allowing Dennis Hannon to advance unopposed, yet no subsequent polling shifts or major campaign developments have narrowed the gap ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader pricing therefore embeds the limited competitive pathways available to Republicans in this upstate New York seat. Late-cycle events such as unexpected scandals, significant health developments, or unusually strong national Republican tailwinds would be required to materially alter the current implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volumen
$26,592Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Tim Kennedy holds a commanding position in the NY-26 House race, reflected in the 94% trader consensus for the Democratic Party. The district's Solid D rating and Kennedy's 2024 general election margin above 30 points establish a durable base-rate advantage reinforced by incumbency. The Republican primary was canceled in June 2026, allowing Dennis Hannon to advance unopposed, yet no subsequent polling shifts or major campaign developments have narrowed the gap ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader pricing therefore embeds the limited competitive pathways available to Republicans in this upstate New York seat. Late-cycle events such as unexpected scandals, significant health developments, or unusually strong national Republican tailwinds would be required to materially alter the current implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$26,592Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Representative Tim Kennedy holds a commanding position in the NY-26 House race, reflected in the 94% trader consensus for the Democratic Party. The district's Solid D rating and Kennedy's 2024 general election margin above 30 points establish a durable base-rate advantage reinforced by incumbency. The Republican primary was canceled in June 2026, allowing Dennis Hannon to advance unopposed, yet no subsequent polling shifts or major campaign developments have narrowed the gap ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader pricing therefore embeds the limited competitive pathways available to Republicans in this upstate New York seat. Late-cycle events such as unexpected scandals, significant health developments, or unusually strong national Republican tailwinds would be required to materially alter the current implied probability.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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