**Serbia’s ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) and President Aleksandar Vučić have confirmed plans for snap parliamentary elections on October 25, 2026—well before the regular December 2027 deadline—driving the 93.4% trader consensus on “Yes.”** Sustained student-led protests since the November 2024 Novi Sad railway station canopy collapse, which killed 16 people amid corruption allegations, created sustained pressure for early elections. In late June 2026, Vučić announced his intent to resign within weeks and explicitly signaled early parliamentary and presidential votes later that year. Subsequent statements narrowed the parliamentary date to October 18 or 25, with public broadcaster RTS and other reporting confirming October 25 by early September. Vučić’s resignation would trigger the process: the government is expected to propose parliament’s dissolution, after which the president calls the vote under constitutional rules requiring 45–60 days between announcement and polling. As of early September 2026, the SNS Main Board nominated Vučić as its lead candidate and prospective prime minister on the “United Serbia” list, aligning with his shift from the presidency (where term limits bar a third run) to the premiership. This sequence follows a pattern of multiple snap parliamentary elections under SNS rule since 2012, used to reset political dynamics amid challenges. Traders price near-certainty in the outcome because official statements, party actions, and legal timelines have converged on a 2026 vote, with only procedural formalities (dissolution decree) remaining before the October date. Late developments, such as coalition negotiations or unforeseen institutional delays, represent the narrow residual uncertainty reflected in the small “No” share.