President Aleksandar Vučić’s repeated commitments to snap parliamentary elections in 2026, including his early May announcement targeting a July or November vote, have anchored trader consensus at an 87.5 percent implied probability for an election before 2027. Ongoing student-led anti-corruption protests since late 2024, which intensified after the Novi Sad station collapse, have sustained pressure for an early National Assembly poll ahead of the scheduled December 2027 deadline. Vučić’s Serbian Progressive Party maintained strong results in March 2026 local elections across ten municipalities, reinforcing his position to call the vote without immediate coalition constraints. Consultations with allied parties in April further signaled institutional readiness, while the absence of a formal dissolution has not altered the prevailing view that a 2026 contest remains the most probable outcome.