Amid the 2026 US-Iran war sparked by February airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and leadership, commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely restricted at roughly 28% of pre-crisis daily volumes—17 vessels in the last 24 hours versus a normal 60—per live tracking data. Iran's IRGC enforces selective permissions favoring ships from China and Russia while imposing multimillion-dollar tolls, GNSS jamming, and mine threats, compounded by US port blockades and recent strikes like the May 10 attack on tanker Safesea Neha. Deadlocked Pakistan-mediated peace talks and Iran's latest demand for US concessions signal no imminent de-escalation, justifying traders' 93.5% consensus against normalization by May 31 absent a major diplomatic breakthrough.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿El tráfico del Estrecho de Ormuz vuelve a la normalidad a finales de mayo?
¿El tráfico del Estrecho de Ormuz vuelve a la normalidad a finales de mayo?
Sí
$12,971,839 Vol.
$12,971,839 Vol.
31 may 2026
Sí
$12,971,839 Vol.
$12,971,839 Vol.
31 may 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Amid the 2026 US-Iran war sparked by February airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and leadership, commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely restricted at roughly 28% of pre-crisis daily volumes—17 vessels in the last 24 hours versus a normal 60—per live tracking data. Iran's IRGC enforces selective permissions favoring ships from China and Russia while imposing multimillion-dollar tolls, GNSS jamming, and mine threats, compounded by US port blockades and recent strikes like the May 10 attack on tanker Safesea Neha. Deadlocked Pakistan-mediated peace talks and Iran's latest demand for US concessions signal no imminent de-escalation, justifying traders' 93.5% consensus against normalization by May 31 absent a major diplomatic breakthrough.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado abierto: Mar 31, 2026, 5:41 PM ET
Volumen
$12,971,839Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Amid the 2026 US-Iran war sparked by February airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and leadership, commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely restricted at roughly 28% of pre-crisis daily volumes—17 vessels in the last 24 hours versus a normal 60—per live tracking data. Iran's IRGC enforces selective permissions favoring ships from China and Russia while imposing multimillion-dollar tolls, GNSS jamming, and mine threats, compounded by US port blockades and recent strikes like the May 10 attack on tanker Safesea Neha. Deadlocked Pakistan-mediated peace talks and Iran's latest demand for US concessions signal no imminent de-escalation, justifying traders' 93.5% consensus against normalization by May 31 absent a major diplomatic breakthrough.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$12,977,033Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the 2026 US-Iran war sparked by February airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and leadership, commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely restricted at roughly 28% of pre-crisis daily volumes—17 vessels in the last 24 hours versus a normal 60—per live tracking data. Iran's IRGC enforces selective permissions favoring ships from China and Russia while imposing multimillion-dollar tolls, GNSS jamming, and mine threats, compounded by US port blockades and recent strikes like the May 10 attack on tanker Safesea Neha. Deadlocked Pakistan-mediated peace talks and Iran's latest demand for US concessions signal no imminent de-escalation, justifying traders' 93.5% consensus against normalization by May 31 absent a major diplomatic breakthrough.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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