Ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran in early 2026, following the 2025 military conflict and subsequent Iranian protests, have produced measurable progress toward a framework agreement that would impose verifiable limits on uranium enrichment and missile activities in exchange for sanctions relief and frozen asset releases. Recent U.S. proposals, including a one-page memorandum discussed in May 2026, outline a multi-year suspension of enrichment alongside Iranian commitments never to pursue nuclear weapons, with mediators noting substantial convergence on core terms despite remaining disputes over stockpile transfers and facility operations. These diplomatic developments, alongside public statements from U.S. officials indicating flexibility on duration and verification, underpin the 60.5 percent implied probability that traders assign to a qualifying deal materializing before 2027.