Recent bilateral consultations in New York have produced concrete progress on tariff carve-outs for nonsensitive goods and a proposed reciprocal reduction framework covering roughly $30 billion in trade per side, building directly on the May 2026 Beijing summit outcomes that established trade and investment boards. Preparatory meetings between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, along with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, have advanced implementation of the existing truce—set to expire November 10, 2026—while addressing agricultural market access and related non-tariff issues. The scheduled Trump-Xi White House meeting on September 24 provides an immediate venue for formalizing extensions or adjustments before year-end. These verifiable diplomatic steps and institutional channels underpin trader consensus on the likelihood of an agreement by December 31.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado91% probabilidad
$264,946 Vol.
$264,946 Vol.
31 dic 2026
91% probabilidad
$264,946 Vol.
$264,946 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent bilateral consultations in New York have produced concrete progress on tariff carve-outs for nonsensitive goods and a proposed reciprocal reduction framework covering roughly $30 billion in trade per side, building directly on the May 2026 Beijing summit outcomes that established trade and investment boards. Preparatory meetings between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, along with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, have advanced implementation of the existing truce—set to expire November 10, 2026—while addressing agricultural market access and related non-tariff issues. The scheduled Trump-Xi White House meeting on September 24 provides an immediate venue for formalizing extensions or adjustments before year-end. These verifiable diplomatic steps and institutional channels underpin trader consensus on the likelihood of an agreement by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Mercado abierto: May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
Volumen
$264,946Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent bilateral consultations in New York have produced concrete progress on tariff carve-outs for nonsensitive goods and a proposed reciprocal reduction framework covering roughly $30 billion in trade per side, building directly on the May 2026 Beijing summit outcomes that established trade and investment boards. Preparatory meetings between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, along with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, have advanced implementation of the existing truce—set to expire November 10, 2026—while addressing agricultural market access and related non-tariff issues. The scheduled Trump-Xi White House meeting on September 24 provides an immediate venue for formalizing extensions or adjustments before year-end. These verifiable diplomatic steps and institutional channels underpin trader consensus on the likelihood of an agreement by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volumen
$264,946Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent bilateral consultations in New York have produced concrete progress on tariff carve-outs for nonsensitive goods and a proposed reciprocal reduction framework covering roughly $30 billion in trade per side, building directly on the May 2026 Beijing summit outcomes that established trade and investment boards. Preparatory meetings between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, along with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, have advanced implementation of the existing truce—set to expire November 10, 2026—while addressing agricultural market access and related non-tariff issues. The scheduled Trump-Xi White House meeting on September 24 provides an immediate venue for formalizing extensions or adjustments before year-end. These verifiable diplomatic steps and institutional channels underpin trader consensus on the likelihood of an agreement by December 31.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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