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icon for #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on August 21?

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on August 21?

icon for #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on August 21?

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on August 21?

ChatGPT 100.0%

TikTok Pro - Events <1%

ParentSquare <1%

Vinted: Pre-loved Marketplace <1%

Polymarket

$5,342 Vol.

ChatGPT 100.0%

TikTok Pro - Events <1%

ParentSquare <1%

Vinted: Pre-loved Marketplace <1%

Polymarket

$5,342 Vol.

icon for TikTok Pro - Events

TikTok Pro - Events

$1,347 Vol.

No

icon for ChatGPT

ChatGPT

$979 Vol.

Yes

icon for ParentSquare

ParentSquare

$237 Vol.

No

icon for Vinted: Pre-loved Marketplace

Vinted: Pre-loved Marketplace

$343 Vol.

No

icon for Threads

Threads

$1,002 Vol.

No

icon for 7 Brew Coffee

7 Brew Coffee

$1,435 Vol.

No

This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).ChatGPT's 100% market-implied odds stem from its established position as the leading artificial intelligence chatbot, fueled by OpenAI's ongoing large language model improvements, high daily engagement, and seamless iOS integration that keeps it at the top of free app charts. Traders view this as skin-in-the-game consensus on sustained user adoption amid a competitive AI landscape. Realistic scenarios that could disrupt the outcome include a surprise feature launch or viral update from a rival app, regulatory changes impacting app store rankings, or a temporary technical issue reducing visibility on August 21.

This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date.

To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).
This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).
Volume
$5,342
End Date
Aug 21, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 4:18 PM ET

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).ChatGPT's 100% market-implied odds stem from its established position as the leading artificial intelligence chatbot, fueled by OpenAI's ongoing large language model improvements, high daily engagement, and seamless iOS integration that keeps it at the top of free app charts. Traders view this as skin-in-the-game consensus on sustained user adoption amid a competitive AI landscape. Realistic scenarios that could disrupt the outcome include a surprise feature launch or viral update from a rival app, regulatory changes impacting app store rankings, or a temporary technical issue reducing visibility on August 21.

This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date.

To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).
This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).
Volume
$5,342
End Date
Aug 21, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 4:18 PM ET

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on August 21?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "ChatGPT" at 100%, followed by "TikTok Pro - Events" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on August 21?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 14, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on August 21?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on August 21?" is "ChatGPT" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "TikTok Pro - Events" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on August 21?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.