Trader consensus in the Anthropic IPO closing market cap market heavily favors no IPO by June 30, 2026, at a 98.7 percent implied probability because recent developments point to an October or fourth-quarter timeline at the earliest. The artificial intelligence company behind the Claude large language model has focused on a massive private funding round targeting a $900 billion-plus valuation to fund computing needs, with reports confirming early banker discussions and law firm hiring for later preparations. This approach mirrors typical paths for high-growth AI firms scaling enterprise adoption before facing public scrutiny. Key swing factors include any surprise Securities and Exchange Commission filing or regulatory shift, though historical patterns for similar model releases show such events rarely accelerate this quickly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo IPO by June 30, 2026 98.6%
600B+ <1%
400–600B <1%
<100B <1%
$1,299,116 Vol.
$1,299,116 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<100B
<1%
100–200B
<1%
200–300B
<1%
300–400B
<1%
400–600B
<1%
600B+
1%
No IPO by June 30, 2026
99%
No IPO by June 30, 2026 98.6%
600B+ <1%
400–600B <1%
<100B <1%
$1,299,116 Vol.
$1,299,116 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<100B
$263,352 Vol.
<1%
100–200B
$91,813 Vol.
<1%
200–300B
$147,455 Vol.
<1%
300–400B
$98,874 Vol.
<1%
400–600B
$161,149 Vol.
<1%
600B+
$285,611 Vol.
1%
No IPO by June 30, 2026
$250,861 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus in the Anthropic IPO closing market cap market heavily favors no IPO by June 30, 2026, at a 98.7 percent implied probability because recent developments point to an October or fourth-quarter timeline at the earliest. The artificial intelligence company behind the Claude large language model has focused on a massive private funding round targeting a $900 billion-plus valuation to fund computing needs, with reports confirming early banker discussions and law firm hiring for later preparations. This approach mirrors typical paths for high-growth AI firms scaling enterprise adoption before facing public scrutiny. Key swing factors include any surprise Securities and Exchange Commission filing or regulatory shift, though historical patterns for similar model releases show such events rarely accelerate this quickly.
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Volume
$1,299,116End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus in the Anthropic IPO closing market cap market heavily favors no IPO by June 30, 2026, at a 98.7 percent implied probability because recent developments point to an October or fourth-quarter timeline at the earliest. The artificial intelligence company behind the Claude large language model has focused on a massive private funding round targeting a $900 billion-plus valuation to fund computing needs, with reports confirming early banker discussions and law firm hiring for later preparations. This approach mirrors typical paths for high-growth AI firms scaling enterprise adoption before facing public scrutiny. Key swing factors include any surprise Securities and Exchange Commission filing or regulatory shift, though historical patterns for similar model releases show such events rarely accelerate this quickly.
This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$1,299,116End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus in the Anthropic IPO closing market cap market heavily favors no IPO by June 30, 2026, at a 98.7 percent implied probability because recent developments point to an October or fourth-quarter timeline at the earliest. The artificial intelligence company behind the Claude large language model has focused on a massive private funding round targeting a $900 billion-plus valuation to fund computing needs, with reports confirming early banker discussions and law firm hiring for later preparations. This approach mirrors typical paths for high-growth AI firms scaling enterprise adoption before facing public scrutiny. Key swing factors include any surprise Securities and Exchange Commission filing or regulatory shift, though historical patterns for similar model releases show such events rarely accelerate this quickly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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