Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors no Databricks IPO by June 30, 2026, at 90.3% implied probability, driven by the absence of any public S-1 filing or official announcement as of mid-May, despite the data and AI platform's robust momentum. Databricks crossed a $5.4 billion annual recurring revenue run-rate in February with over 65% year-over-year growth, bolstered by a $5 billion funding round at a $134 billion valuation and additional debt capacity—signaling ample private capital to delay public listing into late 2026 or 2027. The standard IPO timeline, including SEC review, roadshow, and pricing, leaves insufficient runway from current quiet period. A surprise confidential filing followed by accelerated approval could challenge this, though historical precedents for enterprise software giants like Snowflake suggest multi-month processes amid volatile tech markets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo IPO by June 30, 2026 90.3%
100–125B 6.0%
200–250B 2.0%
125–150B 1.7%
$403,785 Vol.
$403,785 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<100B
<1%
100–125B
6%
125–150B
2%
150–175B
<1%
175–200B
<1%
200–250B
2%
250B+
<1%
No IPO by June 30, 2026
90%
No IPO by June 30, 2026 90.3%
100–125B 6.0%
200–250B 2.0%
125–150B 1.7%
$403,785 Vol.
$403,785 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
<100B
$33,240 Vol.
<1%
100–125B
$61,994 Vol.
6%
125–150B
$26,692 Vol.
2%
150–175B
$59,896 Vol.
<1%
175–200B
$58,153 Vol.
<1%
200–250B
$21,122 Vol.
2%
250B+
$126,215 Vol.
<1%
No IPO by June 30, 2026
$16,474 Vol.
90%
This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors no Databricks IPO by June 30, 2026, at 90.3% implied probability, driven by the absence of any public S-1 filing or official announcement as of mid-May, despite the data and AI platform's robust momentum. Databricks crossed a $5.4 billion annual recurring revenue run-rate in February with over 65% year-over-year growth, bolstered by a $5 billion funding round at a $134 billion valuation and additional debt capacity—signaling ample private capital to delay public listing into late 2026 or 2027. The standard IPO timeline, including SEC review, roadshow, and pricing, leaves insufficient runway from current quiet period. A surprise confidential filing followed by accelerated approval could challenge this, though historical precedents for enterprise software giants like Snowflake suggest multi-month processes amid volatile tech markets.
This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ET
Volume
$403,785End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors no Databricks IPO by June 30, 2026, at 90.3% implied probability, driven by the absence of any public S-1 filing or official announcement as of mid-May, despite the data and AI platform's robust momentum. Databricks crossed a $5.4 billion annual recurring revenue run-rate in February with over 65% year-over-year growth, bolstered by a $5 billion funding round at a $134 billion valuation and additional debt capacity—signaling ample private capital to delay public listing into late 2026 or 2027. The standard IPO timeline, including SEC review, roadshow, and pricing, leaves insufficient runway from current quiet period. A surprise confidential filing followed by accelerated approval could challenge this, though historical precedents for enterprise software giants like Snowflake suggest multi-month processes amid volatile tech markets.
This market will resolve based on Databricks' market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Databricks’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$403,785End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2025, 8:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors no Databricks IPO by June 30, 2026, at 90.3% implied probability, driven by the absence of any public S-1 filing or official announcement as of mid-May, despite the data and AI platform's robust momentum. Databricks crossed a $5.4 billion annual recurring revenue run-rate in February with over 65% year-over-year growth, bolstered by a $5 billion funding round at a $134 billion valuation and additional debt capacity—signaling ample private capital to delay public listing into late 2026 or 2027. The standard IPO timeline, including SEC review, roadshow, and pricing, leaves insufficient runway from current quiet period. A surprise confidential filing followed by accelerated approval could challenge this, though historical precedents for enterprise software giants like Snowflake suggest multi-month processes amid volatile tech markets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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