**Traders assign only a 3.4% chance of any STF justice facing successful impeachment and removal before 2027 primarily because the Senate requires a two-thirds supermajority (54 of 81 votes) that neither the current nor projected post-October 2026 composition appears likely to deliver.** Dozens of impeachment petitions, concentrated on ministers such as Alexandre de Moraes, have been filed but stalled amid procedural barriers, including a December 2025 monocratic ruling by Gilmar Mendes that narrowed standing and altered Senate rules. Even if right-leaning candidates increase the “pro-impeachment” bloc after the elections, internal STF projections and public statements by justices indicate it would still fall well short of the required threshold, consistent with Brazil’s unbroken historical record of no successful STF removals. While isolated new filings or a surprise Senate realignment remain theoretically possible, institutional checks and vote arithmetic continue to anchor the strong market consensus against removal by the end of 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
$83,913 Vol.
$83,913 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% chance
$83,913 Vol.
$83,913 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign only a 3.4% chance of any STF justice facing successful impeachment and removal before 2027 primarily because the Senate requires a two-thirds supermajority (54 of 81 votes) that neither the current nor projected post-October 2026 composition appears likely to deliver.** Dozens of impeachment petitions, concentrated on ministers such as Alexandre de Moraes, have been filed but stalled amid procedural barriers, including a December 2025 monocratic ruling by Gilmar Mendes that narrowed standing and altered Senate rules. Even if right-leaning candidates increase the “pro-impeachment” bloc after the elections, internal STF projections and public statements by justices indicate it would still fall well short of the required threshold, consistent with Brazil’s unbroken historical record of no successful STF removals. While isolated new filings or a surprise Senate realignment remain theoretically possible, institutional checks and vote arithmetic continue to anchor the strong market consensus against removal by the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Volume
$83,913End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign only a 3.4% chance of any STF justice facing successful impeachment and removal before 2027 primarily because the Senate requires a two-thirds supermajority (54 of 81 votes) that neither the current nor projected post-October 2026 composition appears likely to deliver.** Dozens of impeachment petitions, concentrated on ministers such as Alexandre de Moraes, have been filed but stalled amid procedural barriers, including a December 2025 monocratic ruling by Gilmar Mendes that narrowed standing and altered Senate rules. Even if right-leaning candidates increase the “pro-impeachment” bloc after the elections, internal STF projections and public statements by justices indicate it would still fall well short of the required threshold, consistent with Brazil’s unbroken historical record of no successful STF removals. While isolated new filings or a surprise Senate realignment remain theoretically possible, institutional checks and vote arithmetic continue to anchor the strong market consensus against removal by the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$83,913End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign only a 3.4% chance of any STF justice facing successful impeachment and removal before 2027 primarily because the Senate requires a two-thirds supermajority (54 of 81 votes) that neither the current nor projected post-October 2026 composition appears likely to deliver.** Dozens of impeachment petitions, concentrated on ministers such as Alexandre de Moraes, have been filed but stalled amid procedural barriers, including a December 2025 monocratic ruling by Gilmar Mendes that narrowed standing and altered Senate rules. Even if right-leaning candidates increase the “pro-impeachment” bloc after the elections, internal STF projections and public statements by justices indicate it would still fall well short of the required threshold, consistent with Brazil’s unbroken historical record of no successful STF removals. While isolated new filings or a surprise Senate realignment remain theoretically possible, institutional checks and vote arithmetic continue to anchor the strong market consensus against removal by the end of 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions