**Persistent Houthi attacks and associated maritime risks have sharply curtailed vessel traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.** Renewed strikes on Saudi-linked tankers and commercial shipping in July and August 2026 prompted widespread rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, elevating war-risk premiums and deterring mainstream operators. Data from sources including Kpler and Lloyd’s List Intelligence show daily commodity and total transits in late August averaging near or below 30 vessels—well below the 2023 baseline of roughly 60—reflecting selective routing by shadow fleets and sanctioned vessels amid ongoing threats. This environment underpins the overwhelming market-implied probability for an average below 25 transits. A durable reduction in attacks, credible naval protection, or broader de-escalation could support higher volumes, though near-term resolution remains constrained by regional tensions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?
<25 100.0%
25-29 <1%
30-34 <1%
35-39 <1%
$51,688 Vol.
$51,688 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<25
Yes
25-29
No
30-34
No
35-39
No
40+
No
<25 100.0%
25-29 <1%
30-34 <1%
35-39 <1%
$51,688 Vol.
$51,688 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<25
$13,895 Vol.
Yes
25-29
$14,144 Vol.
No
30-34
$11,571 Vol.
No
35-39
$5,459 Vol.
No
40+
$6,619 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Persistent Houthi attacks and associated maritime risks have sharply curtailed vessel traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.** Renewed strikes on Saudi-linked tankers and commercial shipping in July and August 2026 prompted widespread rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, elevating war-risk premiums and deterring mainstream operators. Data from sources including Kpler and Lloyd’s List Intelligence show daily commodity and total transits in late August averaging near or below 30 vessels—well below the 2023 baseline of roughly 60—reflecting selective routing by shadow fleets and sanctioned vessels amid ongoing threats. This environment underpins the overwhelming market-implied probability for an average below 25 transits. A durable reduction in attacks, credible naval protection, or broader de-escalation could support higher volumes, though near-term resolution remains constrained by regional tensions.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET
Volume
$51,688End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETResolution Source
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Persistent Houthi attacks and associated maritime risks have sharply curtailed vessel traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.** Renewed strikes on Saudi-linked tankers and commercial shipping in July and August 2026 prompted widespread rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, elevating war-risk premiums and deterring mainstream operators. Data from sources including Kpler and Lloyd’s List Intelligence show daily commodity and total transits in late August averaging near or below 30 vessels—well below the 2023 baseline of roughly 60—reflecting selective routing by shadow fleets and sanctioned vessels amid ongoing threats. This environment underpins the overwhelming market-implied probability for an average below 25 transits. A durable reduction in attacks, credible naval protection, or broader de-escalation could support higher volumes, though near-term resolution remains constrained by regional tensions.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$51,688End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETResolution Source
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Persistent Houthi attacks and associated maritime risks have sharply curtailed vessel traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.** Renewed strikes on Saudi-linked tankers and commercial shipping in July and August 2026 prompted widespread rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, elevating war-risk premiums and deterring mainstream operators. Data from sources including Kpler and Lloyd’s List Intelligence show daily commodity and total transits in late August averaging near or below 30 vessels—well below the 2023 baseline of roughly 60—reflecting selective routing by shadow fleets and sanctioned vessels amid ongoing threats. This environment underpins the overwhelming market-implied probability for an average below 25 transits. A durable reduction in attacks, credible naval protection, or broader de-escalation could support higher volumes, though near-term resolution remains constrained by regional tensions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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