**Bank of Canada policy rate expectations for 2026 center on holding the overnight target at 2.25% amid moderating inflation and subdued growth.** The rate has remained unchanged through seven consecutive decisions through July 2026, following earlier easing, as headline CPI cooled to 2.8% year-over-year in June from 3.2% in May, with core measures (median and trimmed) near 1.8–2.1%. The July 2026 Monetary Policy Report projects inflation easing toward the 2% target while noting a weak but improving economy and ongoing uncertainties from Middle East energy prices and U.S. trade policy. Market-implied paths and economist surveys price only a modest probability of one 25-basis-point hike by year-end, with the first tightening widely expected in 2027 as the current level sits at the lower end of the estimated neutral range. Forward contracts and bank forecasts reinforce this stance, supporting the 73.5% market-implied probability of no hike in 2026. Key upcoming catalysts include the September and October announcements plus August CPI data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?
32% chance
$18,900 Vol.
$18,900 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
32% chance
$18,900 Vol.
$18,900 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
**Bank of Canada policy rate expectations for 2026 center on holding the overnight target at 2.25% amid moderating inflation and subdued growth.** The rate has remained unchanged through seven consecutive decisions through July 2026, following earlier easing, as headline CPI cooled to 2.8% year-over-year in June from 3.2% in May, with core measures (median and trimmed) near 1.8–2.1%. The July 2026 Monetary Policy Report projects inflation easing toward the 2% target while noting a weak but improving economy and ongoing uncertainties from Middle East energy prices and U.S. trade policy.
Market-implied paths and economist surveys price only a modest probability of one 25-basis-point hike by year-end, with the first tightening widely expected in 2027 as the current level sits at the lower end of the estimated neutral range. Forward contracts and bank forecasts reinforce this stance, supporting the 73.5% market-implied probability of no hike in 2026. Key upcoming catalysts include the September and October announcements plus August CPI data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
Volume
$18,900End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
**Bank of Canada policy rate expectations for 2026 center on holding the overnight target at 2.25% amid moderating inflation and subdued growth.** The rate has remained unchanged through seven consecutive decisions through July 2026, following earlier easing, as headline CPI cooled to 2.8% year-over-year in June from 3.2% in May, with core measures (median and trimmed) near 1.8–2.1%. The July 2026 Monetary Policy Report projects inflation easing toward the 2% target while noting a weak but improving economy and ongoing uncertainties from Middle East energy prices and U.S. trade policy.
Market-implied paths and economist surveys price only a modest probability of one 25-basis-point hike by year-end, with the first tightening widely expected in 2027 as the current level sits at the lower end of the estimated neutral range. Forward contracts and bank forecasts reinforce this stance, supporting the 73.5% market-implied probability of no hike in 2026. Key upcoming catalysts include the September and October announcements plus August CPI data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$18,900End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Bank of Canada policy rate expectations for 2026 center on holding the overnight target at 2.25% amid moderating inflation and subdued growth.** The rate has remained unchanged through seven consecutive decisions through July 2026, following earlier easing, as headline CPI cooled to 2.8% year-over-year in June from 3.2% in May, with core measures (median and trimmed) near 1.8–2.1%. The July 2026 Monetary Policy Report projects inflation easing toward the 2% target while noting a weak but improving economy and ongoing uncertainties from Middle East energy prices and U.S. trade policy. Market-implied paths and economist surveys price only a modest probability of one 25-basis-point hike by year-end, with the first tightening widely expected in 2027 as the current level sits at the lower end of the estimated neutral range. Forward contracts and bank forecasts reinforce this stance, supporting the 73.5% market-implied probability of no hike in 2026. Key upcoming catalysts include the September and October announcements plus August CPI data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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