The Bank of England's April 30 hold at 3.75%—backed by an 8-1 Monetary Policy Committee vote—has anchored the 84.5% market-implied probability of no change at the June 18 meeting, as persistent 3.3% CPI inflation driven by Middle East energy disruptions continues to outweigh slowing wage growth. Traders price in only a 14.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike, reflecting Governor Bailey's warnings of upside inflation risks exceeding 3.5% later in 2026 if oil prices remain elevated. This stance aligns with the shift from prior rate-cut expectations to a more balanced policy path amid sticky inflation above the 2% target. Key upcoming catalysts include the April CPI release and May labor market data, which could refine the market-implied rate trajectory before the next decision.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBank of England decision in June?
Bank of England decision in June?
No change 85%
25 bps increase 15%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$147,273 Vol.
$147,273 Vol.
Jun 18, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
85%
25 bps increase
15%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 85%
25 bps increase 15%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$147,273 Vol.
$147,273 Vol.
Jun 18, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$24,993 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$25,323 Vol.
<1%
No change
$30,928 Vol.
85%
25 bps increase
$41,099 Vol.
15%
50+ bps increase
$24,931 Vol.
1%
The summary for the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting for June 2026 is scheduled to be released on June 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of England's April 30 hold at 3.75%—backed by an 8-1 Monetary Policy Committee vote—has anchored the 84.5% market-implied probability of no change at the June 18 meeting, as persistent 3.3% CPI inflation driven by Middle East energy disruptions continues to outweigh slowing wage growth. Traders price in only a 14.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike, reflecting Governor Bailey's warnings of upside inflation risks exceeding 3.5% later in 2026 if oil prices remain elevated. This stance aligns with the shift from prior rate-cut expectations to a more balanced policy path amid sticky inflation above the 2% target. Key upcoming catalysts include the April CPI release and May labor market data, which could refine the market-implied rate trajectory before the next decision.
The summary for the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting for June 2026 is scheduled to be released on June 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Mar 24, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Volume
$147,273End Date
Jun 18, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The summary for the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting for June 2026 is scheduled to be released on June 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of England's April 30 hold at 3.75%—backed by an 8-1 Monetary Policy Committee vote—has anchored the 84.5% market-implied probability of no change at the June 18 meeting, as persistent 3.3% CPI inflation driven by Middle East energy disruptions continues to outweigh slowing wage growth. Traders price in only a 14.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike, reflecting Governor Bailey's warnings of upside inflation risks exceeding 3.5% later in 2026 if oil prices remain elevated. This stance aligns with the shift from prior rate-cut expectations to a more balanced policy path amid sticky inflation above the 2% target. Key upcoming catalysts include the April CPI release and May labor market data, which could refine the market-implied rate trajectory before the next decision.
The summary for the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting for June 2026 is scheduled to be released on June 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$147,273End Date
Jun 18, 2026Market Opened
Mar 24, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of England's April 30 hold at 3.75%—backed by an 8-1 Monetary Policy Committee vote—has anchored the 84.5% market-implied probability of no change at the June 18 meeting, as persistent 3.3% CPI inflation driven by Middle East energy disruptions continues to outweigh slowing wage growth. Traders price in only a 14.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike, reflecting Governor Bailey's warnings of upside inflation risks exceeding 3.5% later in 2026 if oil prices remain elevated. This stance aligns with the shift from prior rate-cut expectations to a more balanced policy path amid sticky inflation above the 2% target. Key upcoming catalysts include the April CPI release and May labor market data, which could refine the market-implied rate trajectory before the next decision.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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