Recent July CPI data, which rose a modest 0.1% month-over-month in line with expectations after June's sharp decline, has anchored trader expectations for Core PCE. Economists' models now point to a 0.2% Core PCE MoM print for July, following the softer 0.1% June outcome that fell below forecasts. This trajectory reflects persistent but moderating underlying price pressures, with services and shelter components contributing to stability near the Fed's 2% target on an annualized basis. Market-implied odds heavily favor the 0.2% outcome at 63.5%, with 0.3% as the secondary possibility at 31%, consistent with the recent cooling in headline measures and absence of major upside surprises in component data. The August 26 release will resolve the market, with any deviation in supercore or goods prices serving as the key swing factor.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.2% 64%
0.3% 31%
0.1% 6.0%
0.4%+ 1.7%
$30,734 Vol.
$30,734 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
≤-0.2%
<1%
-0.1%
<1%
0.0%
<1%
0.1%
6%
0.2%
64%
0.3%
31%
0.4%+
2%
0.2% 64%
0.3% 31%
0.1% 6.0%
0.4%+ 1.7%
$30,734 Vol.
$30,734 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
≤-0.2%
$606 Vol.
<1%
-0.1%
$831 Vol.
<1%
0.0%
$1,045 Vol.
<1%
0.1%
$3,138 Vol.
6%
0.2%
$4,481 Vol.
64%
0.3%
$17,551 Vol.
31%
0.4%+
$3,082 Vol.
2%
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July CPI data, which rose a modest 0.1% month-over-month in line with expectations after June's sharp decline, has anchored trader expectations for Core PCE. Economists' models now point to a 0.2% Core PCE MoM print for July, following the softer 0.1% June outcome that fell below forecasts. This trajectory reflects persistent but moderating underlying price pressures, with services and shelter components contributing to stability near the Fed's 2% target on an annualized basis. Market-implied odds heavily favor the 0.2% outcome at 63.5%, with 0.3% as the secondary possibility at 31%, consistent with the recent cooling in headline measures and absence of major upside surprises in component data. The August 26 release will resolve the market, with any deviation in supercore or goods prices serving as the key swing factor.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$30,734End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July CPI data, which rose a modest 0.1% month-over-month in line with expectations after June's sharp decline, has anchored trader expectations for Core PCE. Economists' models now point to a 0.2% Core PCE MoM print for July, following the softer 0.1% June outcome that fell below forecasts. This trajectory reflects persistent but moderating underlying price pressures, with services and shelter components contributing to stability near the Fed's 2% target on an annualized basis. Market-implied odds heavily favor the 0.2% outcome at 63.5%, with 0.3% as the secondary possibility at 31%, consistent with the recent cooling in headline measures and absence of major upside surprises in component data. The August 26 release will resolve the market, with any deviation in supercore or goods prices serving as the key swing factor.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$30,734End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July CPI data, which rose a modest 0.1% month-over-month in line with expectations after June's sharp decline, has anchored trader expectations for Core PCE. Economists' models now point to a 0.2% Core PCE MoM print for July, following the softer 0.1% June outcome that fell below forecasts. This trajectory reflects persistent but moderating underlying price pressures, with services and shelter components contributing to stability near the Fed's 2% target on an annualized basis. Market-implied odds heavily favor the 0.2% outcome at 63.5%, with 0.3% as the secondary possibility at 31%, consistent with the recent cooling in headline measures and absence of major upside surprises in component data. The August 26 release will resolve the market, with any deviation in supercore or goods prices serving as the key swing factor.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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