Elevated inflation expectations, with Eurosystem staff projecting headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026 amid higher energy prices linked to Middle East developments, underpin the 91% market-implied probability against an ECB rate cut this year. Following the June 2026 25-basis-point hike that lifted the deposit facility rate to 2.25%, recent data and projections show core inflation remaining above the 2% target while growth forecasts were revised lower to 0.8%, supporting a hold or potential further tightening stance. Trader consensus reflects this path, as futures and economist surveys price rates steady through year-end. A sharp downside surprise in growth or rapid dissipation of energy pressures could reopen easing discussions, though such shifts appear limited in the current baseline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated9% chance
$31,480 Vol.
$31,480 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
9% chance
$31,480 Vol.
$31,480 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated inflation expectations, with Eurosystem staff projecting headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026 amid higher energy prices linked to Middle East developments, underpin the 91% market-implied probability against an ECB rate cut this year. Following the June 2026 25-basis-point hike that lifted the deposit facility rate to 2.25%, recent data and projections show core inflation remaining above the 2% target while growth forecasts were revised lower to 0.8%, supporting a hold or potential further tightening stance. Trader consensus reflects this path, as futures and economist surveys price rates steady through year-end. A sharp downside surprise in growth or rapid dissipation of energy pressures could reopen easing discussions, though such shifts appear limited in the current baseline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$31,480End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated inflation expectations, with Eurosystem staff projecting headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026 amid higher energy prices linked to Middle East developments, underpin the 91% market-implied probability against an ECB rate cut this year. Following the June 2026 25-basis-point hike that lifted the deposit facility rate to 2.25%, recent data and projections show core inflation remaining above the 2% target while growth forecasts were revised lower to 0.8%, supporting a hold or potential further tightening stance. Trader consensus reflects this path, as futures and economist surveys price rates steady through year-end. A sharp downside surprise in growth or rapid dissipation of energy pressures could reopen easing discussions, though such shifts appear limited in the current baseline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$31,480End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated inflation expectations, with Eurosystem staff projecting headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026 amid higher energy prices linked to Middle East developments, underpin the 91% market-implied probability against an ECB rate cut this year. Following the June 2026 25-basis-point hike that lifted the deposit facility rate to 2.25%, recent data and projections show core inflation remaining above the 2% target while growth forecasts were revised lower to 0.8%, supporting a hold or potential further tightening stance. Trader consensus reflects this path, as futures and economist surveys price rates steady through year-end. A sharp downside surprise in growth or rapid dissipation of energy pressures could reopen easing discussions, though such shifts appear limited in the current baseline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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