Recent weakness in eurozone economic data has anchored trader consensus around the 1.0-2.0% range for 2026 annual GDP growth at a 69.5% market-implied probability. First-quarter 2026 GDP expanded just 0.1% quarter-over-quarter and 0.8% year-over-year, marking a sharp deceleration from the prior period amid elevated energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict. This slowdown prompted the ECB to lower its March 2026 staff projection to 0.9% full-year growth, citing subdued consumption and investment delays, while broader consensus forecasts from the IMF and European Commission similarly cluster near 1%. The resilient labor market provides some offset, though external demand remains constrained. Key upcoming catalysts include the ECB’s June policy meeting and the second-quarter GDP release, which could clarify whether the energy shock proves temporary or extends downside risks to the 0-1.0% band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1.0-2.0% 70%
3.0-4.0% 20.5%
2.0-3.0% 10%
<0% 7.2%
NEW
NEW
Jan 31, 2027
<0%
15%
0-1.0%
33%
1.0-2.0%
70%
2.0-3.0%
10%
3.0-4.0%
21%
4.0-5.0%
7%
5.0-6.0%
3%
6.0-7.0%
1%
7.0%+
3%
1.0-2.0% 70%
3.0-4.0% 20.5%
2.0-3.0% 10%
<0% 7.2%
NEW
NEW
Jan 31, 2027
<0%
$792 Vol.
15%
0-1.0%
$636 Vol.
33%
1.0-2.0%
$1,484 Vol.
70%
2.0-3.0%
$638 Vol.
10%
3.0-4.0%
$567 Vol.
21%
4.0-5.0%
$1,540 Vol.
7%
5.0-6.0%
$631 Vol.
3%
6.0-7.0%
$1,323 Vol.
1%
7.0%+
$1,110 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent weakness in eurozone economic data has anchored trader consensus around the 1.0-2.0% range for 2026 annual GDP growth at a 69.5% market-implied probability. First-quarter 2026 GDP expanded just 0.1% quarter-over-quarter and 0.8% year-over-year, marking a sharp deceleration from the prior period amid elevated energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict. This slowdown prompted the ECB to lower its March 2026 staff projection to 0.9% full-year growth, citing subdued consumption and investment delays, while broader consensus forecasts from the IMF and European Commission similarly cluster near 1%. The resilient labor market provides some offset, though external demand remains constrained. Key upcoming catalysts include the ECB’s June policy meeting and the second-quarter GDP release, which could clarify whether the energy shock proves temporary or extends downside risks to the 0-1.0% band.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$8,722End Date
Jan 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent weakness in eurozone economic data has anchored trader consensus around the 1.0-2.0% range for 2026 annual GDP growth at a 69.5% market-implied probability. First-quarter 2026 GDP expanded just 0.1% quarter-over-quarter and 0.8% year-over-year, marking a sharp deceleration from the prior period amid elevated energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict. This slowdown prompted the ECB to lower its March 2026 staff projection to 0.9% full-year growth, citing subdued consumption and investment delays, while broader consensus forecasts from the IMF and European Commission similarly cluster near 1%. The resilient labor market provides some offset, though external demand remains constrained. Key upcoming catalysts include the ECB’s June policy meeting and the second-quarter GDP release, which could clarify whether the energy shock proves temporary or extends downside risks to the 0-1.0% band.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$8,722End Date
Jan 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent weakness in eurozone economic data has anchored trader consensus around the 1.0-2.0% range for 2026 annual GDP growth at a 69.5% market-implied probability. First-quarter 2026 GDP expanded just 0.1% quarter-over-quarter and 0.8% year-over-year, marking a sharp deceleration from the prior period amid elevated energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict. This slowdown prompted the ECB to lower its March 2026 staff projection to 0.9% full-year growth, citing subdued consumption and investment delays, while broader consensus forecasts from the IMF and European Commission similarly cluster near 1%. The resilient labor market provides some offset, though external demand remains constrained. Key upcoming catalysts include the ECB’s June policy meeting and the second-quarter GDP release, which could clarify whether the energy shock proves temporary or extends downside risks to the 0-1.0% band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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