Recent weakness in eurozone data has anchored trader sentiment around the 1.0-2.0% band for full-year 2026 GDP growth, now priced at 69.5% implied probability. First-quarter expansion slowed to just 0.1% quarter-over-quarter and 0.8% year-over-year, prompting the ECB’s March staff projection to cut its 2026 forecast to 0.9% amid elevated energy prices and uncertainty from the Middle East conflict. Professional forecasters in the May survey similarly center expectations at 1.0%, reflecting subdued consumption, delayed investment, and softer external demand. The 0-1.0% outcome at 24.3% captures lingering downside risks, while higher bands remain discounted. Key near-term catalysts include the ECB’s June policy decision and second-quarter GDP release, which could clarify whether the energy shock remains temporary or extends the current soft patch.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1.0-2.0% 70%
3.0-4.0% 20.5%
2.0-3.0% 10%
4.0-5.0% 7.2%
NEW
NEW
Jan 31, 2027
<0%
15%
0-1.0%
23%
1.0-2.0%
70%
2.0-3.0%
10%
3.0-4.0%
21%
4.0-5.0%
7%
5.0-6.0%
2%
6.0-7.0%
1%
7.0%+
3%
1.0-2.0% 70%
3.0-4.0% 20.5%
2.0-3.0% 10%
4.0-5.0% 7.2%
NEW
NEW
Jan 31, 2027
<0%
$792 Vol.
15%
0-1.0%
$636 Vol.
23%
1.0-2.0%
$1,484 Vol.
70%
2.0-3.0%
$638 Vol.
10%
3.0-4.0%
$567 Vol.
21%
4.0-5.0%
$1,540 Vol.
7%
5.0-6.0%
$631 Vol.
2%
6.0-7.0%
$1,323 Vol.
1%
7.0%+
$1,110 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent weakness in eurozone data has anchored trader sentiment around the 1.0-2.0% band for full-year 2026 GDP growth, now priced at 69.5% implied probability. First-quarter expansion slowed to just 0.1% quarter-over-quarter and 0.8% year-over-year, prompting the ECB’s March staff projection to cut its 2026 forecast to 0.9% amid elevated energy prices and uncertainty from the Middle East conflict. Professional forecasters in the May survey similarly center expectations at 1.0%, reflecting subdued consumption, delayed investment, and softer external demand. The 0-1.0% outcome at 24.3% captures lingering downside risks, while higher bands remain discounted. Key near-term catalysts include the ECB’s June policy decision and second-quarter GDP release, which could clarify whether the energy shock remains temporary or extends the current soft patch.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$8,722End Date
Jan 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent weakness in eurozone data has anchored trader sentiment around the 1.0-2.0% band for full-year 2026 GDP growth, now priced at 69.5% implied probability. First-quarter expansion slowed to just 0.1% quarter-over-quarter and 0.8% year-over-year, prompting the ECB’s March staff projection to cut its 2026 forecast to 0.9% amid elevated energy prices and uncertainty from the Middle East conflict. Professional forecasters in the May survey similarly center expectations at 1.0%, reflecting subdued consumption, delayed investment, and softer external demand. The 0-1.0% outcome at 24.3% captures lingering downside risks, while higher bands remain discounted. Key near-term catalysts include the ECB’s June policy decision and second-quarter GDP release, which could clarify whether the energy shock remains temporary or extends the current soft patch.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$8,722End Date
Jan 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent weakness in eurozone data has anchored trader sentiment around the 1.0-2.0% band for full-year 2026 GDP growth, now priced at 69.5% implied probability. First-quarter expansion slowed to just 0.1% quarter-over-quarter and 0.8% year-over-year, prompting the ECB’s March staff projection to cut its 2026 forecast to 0.9% amid elevated energy prices and uncertainty from the Middle East conflict. Professional forecasters in the May survey similarly center expectations at 1.0%, reflecting subdued consumption, delayed investment, and softer external demand. The 0-1.0% outcome at 24.3% captures lingering downside risks, while higher bands remain discounted. Key near-term catalysts include the ECB’s June policy decision and second-quarter GDP release, which could clarify whether the energy shock remains temporary or extends the current soft patch.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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