US strikes in July 2026 targeted Iranian Revolutionary Guard coastal defenses, cruise missile sites, and related military infrastructure on Greater Tunb amid escalation over Strait of Hormuz shipping routes, degrading operational capabilities without displacing Iranian forces or administrative authority. Iran has exercised primary governmental and military control over the island since its 1971 seizure alongside Abu Musa and Lesser Tunb, rejecting UAE sovereignty claims supported by Gulf Cooperation Council statements. No subsequent ground operations, occupations, or diplomatic breakthroughs have shifted on-island control as of late September 2026. Resolution depends on verifiable official statements or credible reporting confirming another state or force assuming primary authority by the market deadline. Trader consensus reflects the low probability of rapid territorial change in the absence of sustained coalition military action.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGreater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$55,050 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
1%
$55,050 Vol.
September 30
$382 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US strikes in July 2026 targeted Iranian Revolutionary Guard coastal defenses, cruise missile sites, and related military infrastructure on Greater Tunb amid escalation over Strait of Hormuz shipping routes, degrading operational capabilities without displacing Iranian forces or administrative authority. Iran has exercised primary governmental and military control over the island since its 1971 seizure alongside Abu Musa and Lesser Tunb, rejecting UAE sovereignty claims supported by Gulf Cooperation Council statements. No subsequent ground operations, occupations, or diplomatic breakthroughs have shifted on-island control as of late September 2026. Resolution depends on verifiable official statements or credible reporting confirming another state or force assuming primary authority by the market deadline. Trader consensus reflects the low probability of rapid territorial change in the absence of sustained coalition military action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 11:04 AM ET
Volume
$55,050End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:04 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US strikes in July 2026 targeted Iranian Revolutionary Guard coastal defenses, cruise missile sites, and related military infrastructure on Greater Tunb amid escalation over Strait of Hormuz shipping routes, degrading operational capabilities without displacing Iranian forces or administrative authority. Iran has exercised primary governmental and military control over the island since its 1971 seizure alongside Abu Musa and Lesser Tunb, rejecting UAE sovereignty claims supported by Gulf Cooperation Council statements. No subsequent ground operations, occupations, or diplomatic breakthroughs have shifted on-island control as of late September 2026. Resolution depends on verifiable official statements or credible reporting confirming another state or force assuming primary authority by the market deadline. Trader consensus reflects the low probability of rapid territorial change in the absence of sustained coalition military action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$55,050End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:04 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US strikes in July 2026 targeted Iranian Revolutionary Guard coastal defenses, cruise missile sites, and related military infrastructure on Greater Tunb amid escalation over Strait of Hormuz shipping routes, degrading operational capabilities without displacing Iranian forces or administrative authority. Iran has exercised primary governmental and military control over the island since its 1971 seizure alongside Abu Musa and Lesser Tunb, rejecting UAE sovereignty claims supported by Gulf Cooperation Council statements. No subsequent ground operations, occupations, or diplomatic breakthroughs have shifted on-island control as of late September 2026. Resolution depends on verifiable official statements or credible reporting confirming another state or force assuming primary authority by the market deadline. Trader consensus reflects the low probability of rapid territorial change in the absence of sustained coalition military action.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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